John Swinney’s anticipated visit to Hamilton, a key target for the Scottish National Party (SNP), turned into a confrontation with frustrated constituents, including some from his own party.
Natasha Kelly, a 35-year-old local resident, expressed her discontent over the council’s inaction regarding the poor conditions of her council flat, which have contributed to chronic asthma in her two young sons. Although she has previously supported the SNP, her faith is waning. Swinney momentarily reassured her with a promise of immediate action from his candidate, but Kelly stated, “I do believe in the SNP but I am losing faith vastly. I can’t be concerned with my own country when I’m worried about my sons.”
Gavin Boyle, the proprietor of a well-known bar in Glasgow, was also infuriated by a staggering 438% increase in his business rates, pushing his annual costs to £645,000. Swinney attempted to alleviate his concerns, but Boyle remained resolute in his decision not to support the SNP or any alternative party, remarking, “They’re as bad as each other.”
The emotional toll of social care issues was evident as the daughter of an elderly woman struggling with inadequate support broke down while speaking with the First Minister. This encounter provided a rare glimpse into the public’s sentiments amid a campaign characterized by a lack of inspiration and fresh ideas, as noted by polling analyst Mark Diffley.
This disinterest has led to one of the most unpredictable Scottish elections in over a decade, where voter turnout and tactical voting may significantly alter expectations. Although the SNP is poised for a fifth consecutive term, the contrast with its previous performance in 2021 is stark. Under Nicola Sturgeon, who was buoyed by her pandemic popularity, the party secured 47.9% of the constituency vote and elected 64 Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs), just shy of a majority. Current polls indicate the SNP’s support has fallen to the mid-30s.
In the meantime, Scottish Labour held an energetic rally in Glasgow the night before the election, facing challenges from both the SNP and Reform UK. Some analysts predict that Jackie Baillie, the party’s deputy leader, may lose her long-held Dumbarton seat to the SNP, a scenario she firmly dismisses.
Party leader Anas Sarwar energized the crowd, urging them to chant the key message: “Reject Reform, beat the SNP, change Scotland and vote Scottish Labour.” Despite the upbeat atmosphere in Glasgow, Scottish Labour privately concedes that defeating the SNP may be unlikely, although they believe Sarwar could still mount a challenge against Swinney for the position of First Minister. Senior officials assert that their data suggests the potential for winning as many as 23 constituency seats and several regional additional seats.
In a push to sway undecided voters, Labour has invested £200,000 in an extensive social media advertising campaign in the final 72 hours of campaigning, aiming to “flood the zone” with their message. A senior Labour source predicted that the party would finish second unless a dramatic change occurred in the remaining days. “I think the SNP will be down quite substantially. I don’t believe they will reach the 60s; it could be in the 50s or even lower,” they stated.
Earlier polling indicated a significant number of undecided voters, with Labour representatives claiming that more individuals leaning toward the “don’t know” category are shifting to their side than to any other party. However, they also acknowledge a loss of some working-class voters to both Reform and the SNP.
In response to growing anxiety, the SNP has intensified its focus on core voters in the final days, promising a vote on independence powers on the first day of the new parliament, indicating possible vulnerability. High-profile supporters, including actors Martin Compston and Alan Cummings, have been enlisted, with Cummings urging fellow independence advocates to support the SNP in every constituency.
The Scottish Greens, aiming for at least one significant constituency win, have chosen not to contest every seat, a move some analysts view as a tactical blunder that may leave discontented independence supporters without an alternative option.
Meanwhile, Reform’s campaign has been tumultuous, plagued by candidate resignations and accusations of social media racism, overshadowed by notable announcements from the UK leadership. Its Scottish leader, Malcolm Offord, has struggled to resonate with voters, and his comments during a televised debate about his wealth drew mockery from opponents. Research conducted by More in Common suggests that support for Reform in Scotland is less enthusiastic compared to England and Wales.
This uncertainty raises questions about who will cast their vote for Reform on election day — whether it will be regular voters disillusioned with mainstream parties or previously disengaged individuals excited by its disruptive message. Local reports indicate that the party lacks a ground operation even in areas where it has some popularity, such as Aberdeen, which could impact voter turnout.
