The upcoming by-election in Farrer has captured significant attention within political circles, a rarity for such electoral events. Typically, by-elections are viewed as opportunities for voters to express discontent with the current government, often leading to a shift in support towards the opposition. However, this weekend’s contest is unique, as the government has opted not to field a candidate, positioning the Farrer by-election as a pivotal moment for the conservative factions of Australian politics.
This by-election marks the first electoral challenge for the newly appointed leaders of the Coalition, Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan, and poses a substantial risk of the opposition losing the Farrer seat for the first time since its establishment in 1949. Historically, Farrer has been a stronghold for the Coalition, having been contested primarily between the Liberal and National parties over the decades.
With the Labor Party as the main challenger, the Coalition has maintained a margin exceeding 10 percent in Farrer since 1984. This has rendered the seat a reliable asset for the opposition, but current dynamics have introduced formidable alternatives for voters.
The Farrer by-election serves as a microcosm of the Coalition’s broader struggles across the nation. On one hand, One Nation is eager to secure its inaugural seat in the federal lower house, with this by-election presenting a timely opportunity for the party. National polling has consistently shown One Nation outperforming the Coalition in recent months.
Conversely, independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe is making a second attempt at the seat after coming closer to winning last year than any Labor candidate has in over five decades. Milthorpe quickly declared her candidacy following the announcement of Sussan Ley’s departure from parliament. The National Party is also in the race, contributing to the complexity of this electoral battle.
Geographically, Farrer spans over 126,000 square kilometers, making it larger than both Iceland and South Korea, and nearly the size of Greece. While approximately one-third of its population resides in Albury near the border, the electorate also encompasses historic Riverina towns like Griffith and Leeton, along with various border towns and remote regions in the west of the state. The local diversity suggests that candidate performance may vary significantly across different areas; for instance, Milthorpe may find stronger support in Albury but less so in more rural sections.
If only Albury were part of the electorate, Milthorpe would have claimed victory in the last election. In contrast, One Nation is expected to resonate more with voters in smaller towns and remote areas, where the Nationals would traditionally be strong.
The stakes are considerable for all parties involved. One Nation is determined to validate its recent polling success at the federal level, particularly following a strong showing in South Australia where more than 20% of voters indicated first preference for the party. Additionally, One Nation recently garnered nearly a quarter of the primary vote in the state seat of Nepean in Victoria. A strong performance in Farrer would bolster their national presence, while a failure to secure a win would raise questions about their viability in future elections.
Amidst all this, the National Party’s prospects seem to be receiving less scrutiny. From the outset of the campaign, the Nationals have appeared pessimistic about their chances, with polling suggesting they may struggle to achieve double-digit support. This would be particularly surprising given the seat’s historical context. When Ley first won election in 2001, it was in a tightly contested race against the Nationals, who had previously held the seat through prominent figures like Tim Fischer for nearly two decades.
Since then, the Nationals have not re-contested Farrer due to Coalition agreements, but the seat has retained its regional essence. New Nationals leader Matt Canavan has actively engaged with the electorate throughout the campaign. A victory for One Nation in Farrer would raise significant concerns for the Nationals, as this seat lies within their traditional stronghold.
The Nationals currently hold four out of five neighboring seats in New South Wales and Victoria, with the fifth seat, Indi, held by independent Helen Haines. Other inland New South Wales seats, such as Calare and New England, have historically aligned with the National Party. The most marginal seat held by the Nationals in New South Wales has a margin of 12.6 percent. However, if combined Coalition support in Farrer falls below 30 percent, as some polling suggests, it could signal trouble for these MPs in future elections.
As the by-election approaches, questions arise about the implications for Nationals MPs like Michael McCormack, Sam Birrell, and Anne Webster as they prepare for the next general election. The outcome on Saturday could reveal whether Angus Taylor’s party will lose a seat and whether Matt Canavan’s party will face a significant challenge in its heartland.
