On a chilly yet bright evening in a shopping center parking lot on the fringes of Merthyr Tydfil, supporters of Reform UK gathered to enjoy complimentary pizza and lively music while they awaited what party leader Nigel Farage described as his final major address before the upcoming elections for the Welsh Senedd, Scottish Parliament, and English local councils.
Under the newly implemented more proportional voting system in Wales, Reform UK has the potential to secure the highest number of seats. However, forming a government is unlikely, as other parties have dismissed the possibility of coalition with them. This marks a significant moment as Reform is the first right-wing party with a plausible chance of winning in Wales since the 1850s. The notable increase in support for a party that garnered just 1% of the vote in the previous Senedd election cannot be overlooked.
Dan Thomas, the party’s Welsh leader, expressed to the Guardian, “If a coalition of lesser parties attempts to block the largest party, that strategy will backfire. I believe the people of Wales will be determined to ensure that the leading party prevails in future elections.”
After over a century of being the dominant political force in Wales, Labour’s support has seen a dramatic decline, with former supporters shifting allegiance to either Plaid Cymru or, to a lesser extent, Reform, representing opposing ends of the political spectrum. Throughout the campaign, both parties have shown competitive support.
Laura McAllister, a public policy professor at Cardiff University, noted that both the Welsh nationalists and Farage’s party are in a comparable position. “The interpretation of ‘winning’ is always open to debate in proportional representation elections. Frequently, the largest party secures a vote and seat count that is similar to other parties, which Reform is likely to capitalize on if that occurs,” she stated. “However, they acknowledge that their path to power is more limited compared to Plaid Cymru due to the presence of more left-leaning parties in the Senedd, and the rise of Reform’s support has impacted the Conservative vote.”
Simultaneously, while Thomas and Farage spoke on Tuesday evening, the last YouGov poll before the Senedd election indicated Plaid Cymru slightly leading with 33% compared to Reform’s 29%. The poll highlighted a significant divide among Welsh voters, revealing that the primary concern influencing votes was “stopping Reform,” at 14%, followed by immigration at 10%.
Although immigration policy is not within the Welsh government’s purview and Wales has one of the lowest ratios of asylum seekers relative to its population in the UK, the topic featured prominently in Farage’s speech in Merthyr Tydfil. Other politicians have criticized the party for inciting fear and division regarding immigration, yet Farage’s remarks were met with enthusiastic applause from the crowd.
Thomas remarked, “Whether we like it or not, immigration is among the top three concerns for Welsh voters, and there needs to be a party that addresses this issue. I recognize that the Welsh government lacks authority over immigration, but it is a recurring topic in discussions and debates.”
Barrie Lewis, a 74-year-old veteran, traveled from Swansea to Brecon for a Reform event earlier that day before attending the rally in Merthyr. “I’m fed up with Labour and Plaid Cymru; they’ve led Wales to ruin,” he stated. “They will likely form another coalition to exclude Reform, but we are a new party, and we’re performing well. Dan will be present in the Senedd to hold them accountable.”
Lewis also suggested that the Welsh election serves as a referendum on Keir Starmer. “He’s hardly ever here; he’s always traveling, and he doesn’t seem to care about the concerns of those at home,” he added.
On Wednesday, Eluned Morgan, the Welsh Labour First Minister, appeared to recognize that Starmer’s unpopularity could result in her party losing its grip on the Senedd. Some polls indicate that Labour, which has maintained power in Wales since devolution in 1999, could possibly end up with only a few seats, potentially leading to Morgan’s own defeat.
“I’m certainly hoping that Plaid Cymru and Reform UK won’t gain control,” she told the Telegraph. “However, there is a risk that could happen, and I wish to prevent that outcome. I hope voters will consider what this election truly represents—it’s not the right time to engage in conflict with Starmer. That can wait for the general election.”
