A recent survey indicates that a significant majority of the population is concerned about the potential increase in food prices due to the ongoing conflict in Iran. The poll, conducted by Opinium, reveals that 80% of respondents fear that grocery costs will rise as retailers transfer their increased expenses to consumers. Additionally, 73% anticipate that the war will elevate prices on a broader range of goods.
The situation is exacerbated by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to soaring oil and gas prices, a crisis in the global fertilizer market, and heightened shipping and distribution costs. Sectors heavily reliant on gas, such as manufacturing and chemicals, are experiencing the most significant impacts. In response, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced additional support for energy-intensive businesses in April, but there are renewed calls for similar measures for the food industry.
Helen Dickinson, the Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), emphasized that the war is escalating costs throughout the supply chain, and it is justified for families to have concerns. She urged the government to eliminate non-commodity energy costs for retailers, which constitute a substantial part of electricity bills. Dickinson pointed out that other nations, such as Germany, are already taking action by reducing electricity costs for businesses, and she believes the UK should adopt a proactive stance instead of using global instability as an excuse for inaction.
The Opinium survey also highlighted that the cost of living crisis will remain a critical political issue even after the upcoming local elections. Among the 2,000 individuals surveyed, 81% expressed worry over rising energy bills, 76% about fuel prices, and 68% about potential tax increases. All these factors could contribute to higher grocery prices, with the Bank of England predicting that food inflation may reach 7% by the end of the year due to escalating costs of fertilizer, energy, and transportation.
According to official statistics, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 3.7% in the year leading up to March 2026, up from 3.3% the previous month. Supermarket leaders met with Reeves in early April to discuss the implications of the conflict in the Middle East on living costs. Simon Roberts, CEO of Sainsbury’s, recently stated that controlling energy prices for retailers is the most critical action the government could take to help keep prices down.
As tensions persist in the Middle East, former President Donald Trump’s commitment to deploy warships to ensure safe passage for vessels stuck in the Gulf has heightened fears of escalating conflict, particularly as Iran seeks to maintain its blockade. Recent research indicates that food prices could be 50% higher by November compared to the beginning of the cost of living crisis in 2021. According to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit think tank, climate-related and energy shocks have accelerated food price inflation, with the rate of increase in five years equating to that of the previous twenty years combined.
Dickinson remarked that while retailers are striving to keep prices stable, they cannot manage this challenge alone. She stressed that every cost the government opts not to address will eventually affect consumers’ shopping expenses. This situation presents a political choice, one that ministers still have the opportunity to alter, though the time for action is rapidly diminishing.
A government representative stated, “We are taking measures to shield consumers from potential food price hikes. We have already suspended certain food tariffs and are collaborating closely with the sector to help keep household bills manageable.”
