A recent poll reveals that over 75% of Hungarians who supported Péter Magyar in the recent elections expect his government to take a stronger stance on climate change, while more than 70% advocate for the protection of LGBTQ+ rights.
Magyar’s Tisza party achieved a supermajority in the elections, effectively ending Viktor Orbán’s long-standing 16-year rule. The newly elected prime minister is set to be inaugurated on Saturday, following celebratory events in both Budapest and Brussels that erupted after the election results were announced.
Having previously been a member of Orbán’s populist Fidesz party, Magyar has a conservative background and refrained from making bold statements on progressive issues during his campaign. This caution may stem from concerns about the media landscape in Hungary, where approximately 80% is dominated by Fidesz supporters.
However, a post-election survey released on Thursday indicates that Tisza’s supporters may lean more toward progressive views, highlighting the potential challenges the new government may face. The survey found that around 77% of Tisza voters endorse a robust climate policy, and 71% either fully or somewhat support the safeguarding of LGBTQ+ rights, an area where significant setbacks occurred during Orbán’s tenure.
Pawel Zerka from the European Council on Foreign Relations, which conducted the poll, noted, “The results were surprising, demonstrating a clear mandate for the new government to adopt a more progressive approach. The real challenge lies in whether Magyar prioritizes the desires of his core supporters or the broader electorate, which is more divided on these issues.”
Despite a two-year campaigning period and a comprehensive 240-page manifesto, the specifics regarding Magyar’s plans for climate action and LGBTQ+ rights remain unclear.
The poll also highlighted the complexities the new administration may encounter: while voters expressed a strong desire for change, there were mixed feelings regarding critical EU-related matters, such as support for Ukraine and reducing Hungary’s reliance on Russian energy.
While 64% of respondents anticipated improved relations with Ukraine, support for the war effort was tepid, with only 24% in favor of financial aid to Ukraine and a mere 12% supporting military assistance. Additionally, 52% opposed the cessation of Russian energy imports.
Zerka remarked, “Péter Magyar’s decisive victory was a call for domestic reform, not necessarily a shift in foreign policy. Although Hungarians are eager to move past years of corruption and isolation, they maintain significant concerns regarding their energy independence and national security—issues that leaders in Brussels must acknowledge.”
The survey results suggest that the EU’s attempts to redefine its relationship with Hungary—strained during Orbán’s administration—will largely depend on whether Magyar is given the opportunity to concentrate on internal reforms, while also navigating the complexities of unlocking substantial frozen EU funds.
Zerka added, “Brussels may wish to take this moment as a chance for broader changes. However, if they apply too much pressure, they risk diverting the new administration’s focus and could portray Magyar negatively to the Hungarian public as someone compelled by Brussels to make undesirable compromises.”
He cited Poland as a warning example, where Donald Tusk’s popularity has waned due to political polarization hindering his ability to implement the changes that voters anticipated.
Nevertheless, the poll showed that 79% of participants expect the new government to strengthen ties with the EU, with 73% expressing confidence that Hungary will access the frozen recovery funds.
Meanwhile, the Fidesz party remains poised to exert influence, holding 52 seats in Hungary’s 199-member parliament, with many loyalists still in key positions within the state, media, and judiciary.
Zerka concluded, “Viktor Orbán still has mechanisms to influence the situation, primarily through his supporters entrenched in various state institutions. Thus, while there are valid reasons to celebrate the current political shift, caution is warranted regarding the forthcoming months.”
