Concerns have emerged regarding potential insider trading among users of the prominent prediction market Polymarket, where individuals have been placing bets on the outcomes of military conflicts. There are apprehensions that some bettors may possess undisclosed information regarding military operations. While reports have surfaced about suspicions of insider trading related to warfare, the identities of those placing these wagers have largely remained ambiguous.
In February, Israeli authorities charged two individuals with security offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice, claiming they utilized classified information to speculate on the timing of military actions on Polymarket.
The indictment’s allegations are backed by a January report from the Guardian, which uncovered a group of shared Polymarket accounts that had been betting on military strikes involving Iran and Israel, projected between June 2025 and January 2026, with profits totaling approximately $156,000 based on accessible blockchain data.
Since that time, there has been an uptick in reports regarding potential insider trading on prediction markets, particularly concerning the conflict with Iran, where suspicious accounts have reportedly earned millions in profits.
Following a successful appeal by local journalists to limit a gag order, court documents from Tel Aviv have revealed more details about those whom prosecutors believe have profited from betting on military strikes and the manner in which they acquired their information.
One of the accused is identified as Omer Ziv, a 30-year-old resident of Tel Aviv. His social media profiles align with information from the indictment and blockchain data, including personal details, photos, and interests. According to LinkedIn, Ziv has spent eight years as an affiliate marketing manager in the online gambling sector. His online activity suggests a keen interest in prediction markets; he often engaged with announcements from Kalshi and had been recommended by peers for a chief of staff role at the company. Just days before his arrest, a Kalshi executive introduced new markets allowing traders to speculate on short-term fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices, prompting Ziv to inquire about the possibility of reducing the intervals to just one minute, humorously stating he was “asking for a degen friend.” His account has since ceased activity.
It remains unclear whether the transactions associated with Ziv’s accounts are, as prosecutors claim, linked to any illegal activities.
The second defendant is a major in the Israeli air force reserves, whose identity and details regarding his position will be kept confidential for national security reasons, as ruled by the presiding judge.
Prosecutors have called upon 45 witnesses to testify in court, and both defendants are required to remain in custody pending the trial’s conclusion.
Aside from the indictment and the ruling on the gag order, no additional court documents have been released, which is a typical practice in classified cases, as explained by legal experts. Ziv’s attorney has not responded to repeated requests for comments, while the major’s legal team also refrained from commenting. The defendants’ pleas have not yet been disclosed publicly.
Other reservists have also been detained on similar suspicions but were subsequently released, as noted in a statement from Israeli authorities in February. Both defendants contend that these actions amount to selective enforcement, a defense they aim to present during the trial, according to the decision document.
In a statement provided to NBC News at the time of the arrests, the lawyers for the major asserted that their client had made “significant contributions to the security of the state,” and indicated that they possess “strong allegations” regarding the indictment, including concerns over the investigative authorities’ conduct that may have compromised security.
“We are confident that once these points are presented, the case will conclude very differently than it began,” stated attorneys Ran Cohen Rochverger and Naor Alon Sosnosky.
Only one other arrest has been made in connection with suspected betting based on classified information: a US soldier was charged on Thursday with insider trading related to the potential ousting of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. The differing charges—one alleging fraud and the other espionage—highlight the lack of legal precedent surrounding gambling on military actions. These cases provide a rare insight into how such platforms may be exploited to profit from confidential military information.
According to the indictment, Ziv became interested in a Polymarket market in June 2025, which posed the question, “Will there be Israeli military action against Iran before July?”
Ziv had previously known the unnamed major in the Israeli air force, who is also being prosecuted. They had crossed paths while employed at a gaming technology company. Prosecutors claim Ziv introduced the Polymarket inquiry to the major. The day after, on June 10, the major commenced active emergency service. Allegedly, they reached an agreement whereby the major would divulge confidential information regarding military actions, while Ziv would place bets using funds from several newly created Polymarket accounts with ambiguous usernames.
Three of the four Polymarket accounts attributed to Ziv in the indictment correspond with details previously reported by the Guardian, including usernames, dates, and profits. The Guardian has identified a cryptocurrency wallet that funded the Polymarket accounts, which also contains five video clips in NFT format that appear to feature Ziv.
On June 12, while at an air force base in southern Israel, the major was allegedly informed that “Operation Roaring Lion” was set to commence before midnight. He shared this information with Ziv via WhatsApp, encouraging him to increase his bets, as stated in the indictment. In a separate group chat, prosecutors allege Ziv informed five acquaintances that a military strike was imminent, while cautioning them to keep quiet “so we don’t go to jail.”
