Vladimir Putin indicated on Saturday that the conflict in Ukraine might be nearing a conclusion, prompting speculation about his motivations for wanting an end to hostilities at this particular juncture, especially in light of the ongoing developments in the conflict.
Following Ukraine’s unsuccessful counteroffensive during the summer of 2023, Russian forces had been steadily gaining ground in Ukrainian territory. Although the Russian military’s advances were gradual and costly in terms of casualties, they fostered a perception that Ukraine was facing an inevitable defeat. However, recent events have shifted this narrative.
Ukraine’s successful reclaiming of Kupiansk in December, a city Moscow had claimed to have captured weeks earlier, took many military analysts by surprise. Furthermore, an agreement that restricted Russian access to the Starlink satellite internet service in February, along with Russia limiting Telegram, a crucial communication tool, enabled Ukraine to recover about 100 square miles of territory in the Zaporizhzhia region.
In April, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia lost control of 45 square miles of Ukrainian land, marking the first net territorial loss for Russia since August 2024, which coincided with Ukraine’s unexpected offensive into Russia’s Kursk region. This loss followed a period of minimal gains for the Russian military in February and March, challenging the notion of a gradual victory for Moscow.
Ukraine asserts that over the past five months, it has inflicted casualties on more Russian soldiers than are being recruited. Although these statistics are difficult to verify, Ukraine’s claims, based on combat footage, suggest that it has killed or wounded approximately 35,000 Russian troops per month in March and April, predominantly through drone strikes.
On the Russian side, recruitment numbers have reportedly decreased to 800 to 1,000 daily, translating to an estimated 24,000 to 30,000 recruits each month, according to economist Janis Kluge, who analyzed regional budget data. This aligns with former president Dmitry Medvedev’s statement that more than 80,000 individuals enlisted in the first quarter of the year.
Amidst these developments, there is no immediate indication that Putin intends to initiate a second public mobilization, especially after the unrest caused by the first mobilization in September 2022.
Russia’s economy showed signs of weakness early in 2026; however, a sudden rise in oil prices following Donald Trump’s military actions against Iran has resulted in an economic rebound. According to the Kyiv School of Economics, oil export revenues reached $19 billion in March, a significant increase from $9.8 billion in February, representing the highest monthly earnings since autumn 2023.
Despite this recovery, Ukraine has recently targeted Russian oil export facilities, launching long-range missile and drone attacks on terminals in Primorsk and Ust-Luga. These attacks have significantly reduced export volumes, with daily oil exports dropping from 5.2 million barrels to 3.5 million, as reported by Sergey Vakulenko of the Carnegie Foundation.
Currently, the surge in oil prices is sufficient to balance out the anticipated declines in Russian exports, according to Vakulenko, although this situation could rapidly alter if an agreement is reached between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially causing oil prices to plummet.
Initially, after the onset of the invasion, Ukraine depended heavily on military support and training from the West, including hopes for western F-16 fighters and US Patriot air defense systems. However, as it became evident that Western military supplies were dwindling, Ukraine began to invest more in its own capabilities and resources. This shift has been demonstrated through successful strikes on Russian oil facilities, including three drone attacks in the past two weeks on a refinery in Perm, located 930 miles from the frontline.
The introduction of affordable interceptors at the front lines in early spring has renewed Ukraine’s confidence in its ability to neutralize most Russian missiles, particularly as supplies of Patriot missiles become scarce. Ukraine reported that its interceptors, including the Sting from Wild Hornets, successfully shot down 33,000 drones in March, double the number from the previous month. This technology is now also being exported to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, which have faced Iranian attacks in the spring.
Concerns arose in Russia that Ukraine might target its Red Square victory parade over the weekend, leading Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to declare that the event would continue as planned.
For some time, Russia has concentrated on diplomatic efforts. Putin remains hopeful that he can persuade Trump to influence Zelenskyy into conceding the remainder of the Donetsk province to compensate for the stalled progress on the front lines. This proposal was initially made during the Alaska summit in August, and while the US considered it, Trump ultimately did not impose it on Ukraine.
Despite Putin’s recent comments and his suggestion to collaborate with former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as a mediator, there is no indication that Russia’s demands have softened. Last week, a key Kremlin advisor, Yuri Ushakov, stated that peace negotiations could not commence until Ukraine withdrew from all of Donetsk.
While Trump has been preoccupied with the crisis in Iran, Putin may be looking to rekindle engagement with the White House, potentially utilizing new rhetoric to facilitate this dialogue.
