Andy Burnham, the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, has commenced what many view as a preliminary campaign to become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, starting with an apology aimed at residents in the Makerfield constituency. During a speech at an investment summit, he expressed regret for the “circus” that would soon descend upon the area, referencing the influx of politicians, canvassers, polling firms, and media in anticipation of a by-election scheduled for June 18.
Typically, by-elections in the UK garner limited attention, with 650 seats in the House of Commons. However, the stakes in Makerfield, which has about 70,000 registered voters, are particularly high, as the outcome could influence the leadership of a nation of 70 million. This is especially pertinent given the current Labour Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, who is facing mounting pressure due to recent scandals and dismal local election results.
Despite calls for his resignation, Starmer has yet to face a leadership challenge, but whispers of a “slow-motion coup” have begun to circulate since the Labour Party’s poor performance in the recent local elections. Nearly 100 of the 403 Labour MPs have publicly suggested that he should step down, and there have been multiple resignations among party officials, including the health minister and four junior ministers.
The resignation of Josh Simons, the local Labour MP for Makerfield, has opened a door for Burnham to seek a return to national politics. Simons, who was a first-term MP, stepped down specifically to facilitate Burnham’s potential candidacy for the House of Commons.
Clive Lewis, a Labour MP critical of Sir Keir, remarked that the party is in a challenging position following the recent local election results and believes Burnham could help rejuvenate Labour. “While I don’t see Andy as a savior, he has the qualities needed to lead this country,” Lewis stated, emphasizing Burnham’s popularity, which he attributes not only to his personable nature but also to his effective governance in Manchester.
Burnham, 56, is noted for successfully bringing Greater Manchester’s bus services back under public management, enhancing integration with other transportation methods, and capping fares to alleviate financial burdens for residents. “His actions have significantly improved lives in Manchester, and he aims to replicate that impact on a national scale,” Lewis added.
However, whether Burnham can translate his local successes into effective policies on broader national issues such as taxation, welfare, energy, immigration, and defense remains to be seen. The immediate concern is whether he can secure a victory in Makerfield amidst strong competition from the right-wing Reform UK party, which has been gaining traction in several parts of the UK, particularly in Makerfield, where it excelled in the recent local elections.
Reform UK has nominated Robert Kenyon, a plumber and army reservist, as its candidate. Kenyon previously contested the Makerfield seat in the 2024 general election, finishing second to Labour’s Simons, and recently won a council seat with a substantial majority over Labour’s nearest rival.
Declan Carey, a local democracy reporter, noted that Burnham’s candidacy could potentially disrupt Reform UK’s momentum following their recent electoral successes. “Just weeks ago, Reform won 24 out of 25 council seats, marking a significant defeat for Labour in what has traditionally been considered its stronghold,” Carey explained. “Burnham faces considerable challenges, but his personal appeal in the region is substantial.”
Burnham has been elected as Greater Manchester’s Labour mayor three times and gained prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic for his criticisms of the Conservative government’s approach to regional lockdown measures, earning him the moniker “King of the North.” Should he secure a win in Makerfield, he is likely to encounter additional challengers in a potential Labour leadership contest.
Despite Burnham’s popularity, respected pollster John Curtice warned that the by-election could be closely contested. “It’s a very uncertain situation, and I would be surprised if Burnham achieves anything beyond a narrow victory,” he said, suggesting that Reform UK may start as favorites in this race. “If anyone other than Burnham were contesting in this constituency, it would be considered a difficult challenge for Labour,” he added.
Curtice emphasized the critical question of whether Burnham can win back voters who previously abandoned Labour during the recent council elections, underscoring the complexity of the situation in Makerfield.
