Envision a future where individuals experience elevated levels of well-being; a scenario in which 90% of the global population sees their income double while working only half the hours currently required. In this ideal world, the wealth share of the lower half of the population rises from a mere 2% to 30%, ensuring that everyone has enough without anyone excessively consuming. This future would unfold on a planet capable of supporting human life without suffering from climate breakdown.
In light of the dismal techno-authoritarian futures being promoted today, there is an urgent need for a radical new perspective on global advancement in the 21st century. A credible vision emphasizes that the planet’s habitability is essential for human development and equitable growth.
A recent report explores the necessary conditions for achieving this vision on an economically viable and ecologically sound path by the century’s end. Its findings suggest that a global transformation reconciling planetary sustainability with high standards of living for all is achievable, provided that three key criteria are met. Rapid decarbonization of energy systems is vital, alongside a significant transition from overconsumption to a focus on “sufficiency.” This would require a substantial decrease in both labor hours and the use of natural resources, alongside significant alterations in consumption habits, food practices, land use, and forest management. Additionally, financing and politically supporting decarbonization and sufficiency will necessitate a considerable reduction in income, wealth, and power disparities both globally and domestically. Addressing global inequality is not only compatible with substantial decarbonization but is also essential for ensuring shared prosperity on a planet with limited resources.
The Global Justice Report represents the inaugural attempt to present a fully quantified strategy for this transition. It integrates four aspects that are frequently discussed in isolation: global wealth redistribution, a comprehensive reform of the international financial and economic system, a profound transformation of energy infrastructures, and significant changes in consumption behaviors. Unlike most climate models, including those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this report uniquely analyzes all four dimensions together, positioning inequality and sufficiency at the forefront of the discussion.
What benefits would this transition yield? Central to this vision is the convergence of incomes across nations. The average monthly income, currently exhibiting a 16-fold disparity between the poorest regions in sub-Saharan Africa (€290) and the wealthiest areas in North America/Oceania (€4,590), could rise to approximately €5,000 for everyone by 2100.
This convergence is not merely financial; it also entails a reduction in annual working hours per employed individual from around 2,100 to about 1,000, continuing the trend toward shorter work periods. The percentage of global working hours allocated to education and healthcare would increase from 11% to 43%. Furthermore, gender pay equity and a more balanced distribution of economic and domestic responsibilities between men and women would be achieved.
All of this would transpire within a climate that remains livable. Through sustainable convergence and swift decarbonization, global warming would be limited to 1.8°C, compared to more than 4°C under current trajectories.
Achieving this vision necessitates a profound reduction in inequality. The income ratio among individuals would diminish to 1:5, while the wealth ratio would narrow to 1:10, echoing the progress made in Western and Nordic Europe throughout the 20th century. The wealth share of the poorest half of the global population would increase from 2% to 30%, while the share held by billionaires would plummet from 6% to 0.05%.
These transformative changes would be financed and managed through new institutional frameworks. A global justice fund is proposed to allocate an average of 10% of the world’s GDP annually from 2026 to 2060 for country dividends and investments, a stark contrast to the less than 0.4% currently provided by aid and the combined budgets of entities like the UN, IMF, and World Bank. Funding sources would include a global sovereign fund managing 10% of the world’s capital, a wealth tax on billionaires that would escalate to 20% annually, and a top-tier global income tax reaching 90%, each affecting around 1% of the global population.
This plan is not about transferring resources from many to a few but rather about benefiting nearly everyone. Approximately 90% of the global population is projected to double their income between 2026 and 2100. When considering leisure time and a habitable environment, over 99% would come out ahead. Moreover, the plan aims to redistribute power; currently, the wealthiest regions possess four times the voting power at the IMF and World Bank than their share of the global population would warrant. In the proposed new system, every individual would have an equal voice, supported by an international clearing union and a new global currency to rectify the disproportionate advantages of dominant powers and address global trade imbalances.
This report contributes to a wider international agenda advocating for planetary sustainability, social justice, and reform of the global financial system. This includes initiatives like the Bridgetown agenda introduced by Barbados in 2022, the Sevilla Commitment on development financing, the UN tax convention process, and various G20 initiatives spearheaded by Brazil and South Africa aimed at tackling global inequality. The principal value of this report lies in its ability to present these proposals within a quantified institutional framework, modeling socioeconomic convergence, climate change, and distributional trends extending to the year 2100.
A future that is both habitable and equitable in the 21st century is within reach. The existing carbon budget supports this possibility, and historical precedents for similar achievements exist, such as universal suffrage, widespread access to healthcare and education, reduced working hours, and significant decreases in inequality throughout the 20th century. The barriers to these advancements are not rooted in technical impossibilities, but rather in the lack of a shared vision for social progress that is both constructive and actionable.
