Analysts suggest that Russia’s inability to make significant gains on the battlefield is prompting an increase in its airstrikes targeting major Ukrainian cities. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that these attacks also serve to divert attention from the effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes within Russia. Recent data from the Finnish Black Bird Group, as reported by Reuters, reveals a significant decline in Russian territorial advancements compared to the same timeframe last year. The Ukrainian open-source intelligence group DeepState reported this week that Russian forces recorded their lowest monthly territorial gains since October 2023, capturing merely 14 square kilometers in May, despite a 37.5% rise in military assaults from Russia.
An ISW analysis noted, “Ukrainian forces have effectively stalled the Russian offensive for spring-summer 2026, with Russian troops in May 2026 gaining control over only a small fraction of the territory they managed to secure in May 2025.” Ukrainian forces have also successfully reclaimed some territory this year. John Helin, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, remarked, “If the Russians cannot regain momentum significantly, their objective of seizing Donbas this year is rapidly becoming unattainable.”
Mathieu Boulègue from the Center for European Policy Analysis in the United States highlighted that Moscow’s military is struggling with reduced industrial capacity due to Western sanctions and a dwindling supply of weaponry. He stated, “This is gradually shifting the Kremlin’s cost-benefit analysis regarding the continuation of the war.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Fire Point, a manufacturer of missiles and drones, announced the successful test flight of a ballistic missile designed for air defense, as Kyiv faces challenges in securing enough ammunition for foreign-supplied missile defense systems like the Patriot. Iryna Terekh, CEO of Fire Point, confirmed that the missile, named FP-7.X, performed a fully controlled maneuvering flight and is set to form the foundation of the upcoming Freyja anti-ballistic interceptor.
In a separate incident, a Ukrainian strike on “non-residential buildings in Simferopol,” located in occupied Crimea, resulted in at least three fatalities and injured seven, according to Sergey Aksyonov, the head of the region’s Russian administration. Additionally, officials imposed by Moscow in the Donetsk region reported a drone strike that targeted a bus, leading to the deaths of seven individuals and injuring 11 others; the bus was en route from Moscow to Simferopol at the time of the attack.
Russian artillery fire claimed the lives of three civilians in Kramatorsk, a frontline city in eastern Ukraine, while drone and missile attacks were reported near Dnipro in the southeast. Vadym Filashkin, the governor of the Donetsk region, noted that 11 people were injured during a daytime assault on residential structures in Kramatorsk.
In Kherson, a drone attack resulted in one death and the destruction of 36 apartments within a residential building, as reported by regional governor Oleksandr Prokudin. Additionally, Oleksandr Hanzha, governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, mentioned three strikes near Dnipro, which resulted in eight injuries and ignited a large fire; three individuals remain in serious condition in the hospital. In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the Russian attacks on food storage sites and a postal depot.
In a significant escalation, Ukrainian drones targeted energy and military installations in St. Petersburg early Wednesday, coinciding with the arrival of international guests for an economic forum, causing considerable embarrassment for President Vladimir Putin. Guests were greeted by thick smoke upon arrival for the opening ceremony. The Ukrainian military also attacked the nearby Kronstadt naval base and shipyard, setting ablaze the guided-missile corvette Boikiy, which is part of Russia’s Baltic fleet.
These strikes have put the Kremlin in a difficult position, especially with Putin set to deliver a keynote address on Friday. The temporary closure of St. Petersburg’s airport prevented some guests from arriving, despite approximately 20,000 attendees from 130 nations expected at the three-day summit, which includes various controversial figures, such as former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and American influencer Candace Owens.
Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, indicated that Ukrainian drone strikes deep within Russian territory are instilling “panic” at the Kremlin. She noted, “Ukraine has significantly intensified strikes against oil facilities, which are critical for funding the war. Simultaneously, we observe that Putin is losing financial resources, personnel, and momentum, which may explain the increase in attacks on civilians.”
The European Union is preparing additional sanctions against Russia, with Kallas stating that a primary objective is to limit Russia’s oil revenues, particularly in light of rising prices linked to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. “We must also enhance our support for Ukraine, enabling them to defend themselves against these brutal attacks,” she emphasized.
Additionally, officials from Germany, France, and the UK are reportedly collaborating with Kyiv to explore avenues for negotiations with Russia to conclude the conflict, according to a report by Bloomberg News. A German official disclosed to Reuters that a potential opening for dialogue is slowly emerging between Russia and Europe regarding Ukraine, although they cautioned that recent hostilities suggest that initiating talks could take months rather than weeks.
