As various regions in India endure extreme temperatures, the United Nations’ meteorological organization has issued a caution regarding the potential emergence of a moderate to strong El Niño phenomenon in the upcoming months. This development raises alarms about increased temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and pressures on food and water resources.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) attributes the onset of El Niño conditions to unusually high ocean temperatures in the Pacific. The organization projects that global temperatures will be above average from June to August, with effects likely persisting until November.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth stated to the BBC that 2027 is highly likely to be recorded as the warmest year globally.
The WMO describes El Niño as a cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon generally lasts from nine to twelve months and can have a profound impact on weather patterns around the globe.
The term “El Niño,” which means “Christ child” in Spanish, was initially used by fishermen along the coasts of Ecuador and Peru to refer to a warm ocean current that typically appears around Christmas time.
El Niño events are frequently associated with various extreme weather phenomena, including droughts, heatwaves, and heavy rainfall across different regions worldwide.
Historically, El Niño has been correlated with diminished monsoon activity and hotter summers in India, although the extent of its impact can vary annually.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports that the past four decades have been markedly warmer compared to previous periods beginning in 1850. Referring to the 2021 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the IMD noted that global surface temperatures from 2011 to 2020 were approximately 1.09 degrees Celsius higher than those recorded between 1850 and 1900.
The IMD has also observed an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves across many areas since the 1950s.
Data from the IMD indicates that India’s annual mean surface temperature has displayed a warming trend of approximately 0.62 degrees Celsius per century from 1901 to 2020.
One of the most significant El Niño occurrences on record took place in 1998, often referenced by climate scientists as an example of how El Niño can exacerbate extreme heat conditions.
Hausfather remarked to the BBC that if a similar event were to occur today, it would be considered an exceptionally cool year in comparison to the last twenty years, highlighting the long-term ramifications of climate change driven by human activities.
Studies examining the health impacts associated with El Niño in India have linked the 1998 event to intense heatwaves, alterations in rainfall patterns, and the emergence of diseases like malaria.
This particular heatwave reportedly resulted in over 2,600 fatalities across the country.
Researchers have long investigated the connection between El Niño and failures of the monsoon in India. A study conducted by RH Kripalani and Ashwini Kulkarni from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune indicated that several significant drought years in India coincided with robust El Niño events.
However, experts have emphasized that not every strong El Niño leads to severe drought in India, suggesting that a variety of climate factors contribute to monsoon outcomes.
Officials and weather specialists recommend that individuals exercise caution during periods of extreme heat and heavy rainfall.
