An animation created by the Solar System Registry has captured the moment when a section of the Falcon 9 rocket is set to collide with the Moon. This event, involving the upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9, is anticipated to be visible from Earth, potentially altering the Moon’s physical and chemical characteristics at the impact site.
The upcoming impact presents a unique opportunity for researchers to observe and analyze the collision’s effects in real time. However, some experts, including space lawyer Gregory Radisic, express concern that such events convey a disrespectful attitude towards the Moon, likening the situation to treating it as a “garbage dump.” Radisic emphasized that while the incident may tarnish the reputation of the involved space operators, the Moon’s surface will bear a lasting mark since there are no natural elements to erode or wash away the debris.
He remarked, “We appear to be accepting the idea that individual nations or corporations can impact the Moon, both physically and visually, with effects that endure for years, not just weeks.”
Although the Moon regularly experiences impacts from meteoroids, human-made collisions are considerably less common. Professor Katarina Miljkovic, who specializes in planetary science at Curtin University, explained that the Falcon 9’s trajectory towards the Moon was unintentional. Typically, remnants from rocket launches return to Earth, but occasionally they find themselves on a path that intersects with the Moon.
“Space debris from our numerous rocket launches often falls back to Earth, but some pieces can become stranded in space,” she noted. “If they happen to cross the Moon’s orbit, they can collide.” Miljkovic expressed enthusiasm about the chance to study the impact, clarifying that there is no danger involved since the debris is relatively small. “This isn’t an apocalyptic scenario; it’s merely a piece of debris hitting the Moon,” she stated. With the absence of an atmosphere on the Moon, the debris will not burn up as it would on Earth, resulting in a direct impact that creates a crater.
During the collision, a significant amount of energy will be released, some of which will manifest as heat, causing temporary bright flashes known as lunar impact flashes. According to Miljkovic, observers in eastern North America and much of South America will have the best view of the event, which is expected to occur at approximately 4:35 PM AEST. Unfortunately, those in Australia will miss the spectacle as it coincides with daylight hours.
The impact is likely to alter the Moon’s regolith, where the collision occurs, potentially vaporizing, melting, or breaking up some of the material. Miljkovic explained, “The collision will not only fracture rocks but could also fuse them together, effectively reworking the lunar surface.” While the event may not seem particularly thrilling, it plays a crucial role in enhancing our understanding of the geotechnical properties of the Moon’s surface, which is essential for future exploration and human presence.
A collaborative effort among scientists worldwide, including Miljkovic, aims to study the collision using various telescopes and satellite imagery. The Falcon 9 rocket previously launched on January 15, 2025, carrying Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost Mission 1 and iSpace’s Resilience lunar lander from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
Radisic highlighted that the upcoming collision raises significant issues regarding lunar coordination and the necessity for a formal communication process to address potential accidents and large-scale impacts in space. He noted that many individuals became aware of this event through a scientific paper, indicating a lack of effective communication at both national and corporate levels regarding safe lunar operations moving forward.
The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which underpins international space law, includes provisions for communication among space-faring nations. However, compliance is voluntary, and despite 138 signatory countries, the lack of enforceable regulations remains a pressing concern. As governments and private entities embark on an unprecedented number of lunar missions, Radisic asserted that it is increasingly imperative for space operators to establish clearer communication channels and create platforms for sharing information to prevent future mishaps.
