Forecasts indicate that approximately 50 million individuals may face acute hunger by the end of next year due to the rapidly evolving El Niño weather phenomenon. This situation compounds the struggles of hundreds of millions who are already experiencing alarming levels of hunger, primarily driven by prolonged droughts in various African regions and the inflationary pressures on food prices stemming from the conflict in Iran.
Even if the anticipated El Niño is not as severe as some models suggest, it is expected to exacerbate food insecurity, potentially affecting over 225 million people in 45 countries, according to a warning from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) issued on Wednesday.
The regions predicted to be most impacted include Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa. Additionally, South and Southeast Asia are likely to experience reduced rainfall, which could significantly disrupt agricultural production and adversely affect farmers.
This year’s El Niño, which develops every few years in the Pacific Ocean, is projected to be the most intense in at least seven decades, with some experts referring to it as a “super El Niño,” although this designation is not officially recognized.
The strength and effects of this phenomenon are closely linked to the ongoing climate crisis. Earlier this year, specialists noted that a powerful El Niño could coincide with global temperature increases, potentially leading to record-high temperatures either this year or more likely in 2027.
While private sector analysts have already cautioned about the potential impact of the escalating El Niño on global food prices, the WFP’s report is the first to specifically analyze its implications for worldwide hunger levels. The WFP aims to mitigate the effects of extreme weather through early warning systems and anticipatory relief measures, for which they have allocated a budget of at least $80 million (£60 million).
The repercussions of this situation are expected to be extensive, as farmers may take more than one growing season to deplete their food reserves. For example, in southern Africa, the primary agricultural season runs from October 2026 to March 2027; however, the most severe consequences are anticipated during the lean season that follows the harvest, approximately nine months later.
Richard Choularton, the WFP’s director of climate and resilience services, stated, “The most significant impact on food security in southern Africa will occur during the 2027 to 2028 lean season.”
Fortunately, farmers may benefit somewhat from the residual advantages of last year’s unusually bountiful harvest. According to Jean-Martin Bauer, the WFP’s director of food security, “By the end of 2025, food prices were within favorable ranges, although there has been upward pressure due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.”
During the El Niño events of 2015-16, between 60 million to 100 million people experienced acute food insecurity, a term used by the WFP to describe hunger that falls short of famine levels. At that time, the WFP had not yet implemented its updated anticipatory strategies, leading experts to hope that this year’s extreme weather will result in a lesser impact, even if the El Niño proves to be more intense.
However, Choularton pointed out that efforts to address food insecurity have been hindered by insufficient data, as some data collection initiatives have been curtailed due to funding shortages.
The WFP’s analysis is based on data from the 45 countries where they operate and where baseline food insecurity estimates are available. There may be additional repercussions in areas not included in this assessment.
Bauer warned that food prices could face pressure globally, not just in the 45 nations analyzed. “This will also depend on the decisions made by exporting countries. It is crucial to prevent a situation where major countries restrict food exports,” he emphasized. “At the regional level, elevated prices and access issues may certainly arise.”
In the UK and Europe, farmers have expressed concerns regarding the effects of extreme heat and insufficient rainfall on their crops, with retailers preparing for potential price increases.
