Recent statistics indicate a notable decrease in the number of small boats traversing the Channel, with crossings falling by 43% from January to mid-July 2025 compared to the same timeframe last year—dropping from 21,690 to 12,469.
However, since Andy Burnham assumed office on July 20, there has been a slight uptick in crossings compared to last year. From July 20 to August 2, 2025, 1,962 individuals made the journey in small boats, while the corresponding period this year saw over 2,000 crossings.
Burnham toured the command center in Dover on Sunday, where the movements of small boats are monitored using surveillance drones. He asserted that the government will be “relentless” in its efforts to halt these crossings and aims to “regain control” of the situation.
The question remains: have government officials finally found a solution to a political challenge that has plagued multiple prime ministers for nearly a decade? Will Burnham’s promises materialize?
While government actions aimed at curbing the crossings have disrupted the operations of people smugglers in northern France, these efforts have not entirely dismantled their business model. In just the past week, over 1,000 individuals have successfully crossed, with a peak of 752 people arriving in nine boats on July 29, marking the highest daily total so far this year, followed by an additional 326 arrivals in four boats the following Saturday.
Although there has been a decline in asylum applications, it has not matched the reduction in small boat arrivals. For the year ending March 2026, 93,525 individuals sought asylum, reflecting a 12% decrease from the previous year. Of these, 42% (38,980) arrived via small boats, while the remainder entered the UK through various means such as visas, lorries, or shipping containers.
People smugglers have adapted their methods as well. Launch sites have expanded beyond Calais, with some boats departing from Belgium and others from Dieppe, which is approximately 70 miles (113 km) from the UK, compared to the 27-mile journey from Calais to Dover. French authorities have reported the presence of nine large dinghies carrying over 100 passengers each this year.
In addition to the boat routes, smugglers are now offering a more costly lorry transportation option for those intending to claim asylum upon arrival in the UK. Current rates for a spot on a dinghy are around €1,000 (£852), whereas a place in a lorry costs between €4,000 and €5,000.
Charitable organizations operating in northern France, such as Care4Calais, Project Play, Utopia 56, and Calais Food Collective, indicate that a considerable number of asylum seekers are still waiting for their chance to cross the Channel.
The UK government has committed an additional £660 million to France to help reduce the influx of asylum seekers crossing the Channel. This funding includes plans to support a riot squad aimed at managing and dispersing individuals attempting to board small boats.
Despite measures such as French police enforcement and the “one in, one out” policy—where a number of asylum seekers arriving via small boats are returned to France while an equal number are legally brought to the UK—the overall deterrent effect appears limited. This is particularly true given that the UK accounts for only a small fraction of the total asylum seekers arriving in Europe.
Amy Pope, the director general of the International Organization for Migration, has remarked that by the time many asylum seekers reach northern France, after enduring perilous journeys that often include crossing the Sahara and facing abuse in Libya, it is too late for them to reconsider.
Many asylum seekers crossing the Channel have family ties in the UK or are proficient in English. Some express a belief that the UK offers a safer environment compared to France, where they face threats from smugglers.
One Syrian asylum seeker, who made the crossing twice, recounted his thoughts before embarking: “I come or I die.”
While inclement weather has been a factor in the decrease of boat crossings—2026 has seen particularly windy conditions, which complicate launches—some asylum seekers involved in the “one in, one out” scheme estimate that around 200 individuals have returned to the UK. However, Home Office officials suggest the actual figure may be lower.
It is suspected that some individuals may be re-entering the UK clandestinely via lorries, living without the Home Office’s knowledge. Some have indicated plans to disclose their presence to authorities if the “one in, one out” policy concludes in October, as anticipated.
Challenges such as inadequate support and poor living conditions in France have been cited as reasons for individuals returning to the UK after their asylum applications are denied. Others report experiencing violence from smugglers over debts incurred during their initial crossings.
One asylum seeker expressed intentions to return to the UK after his asylum claim in France was rejected, fearing persecution if sent back to his home country due to his political activities against the government. “If I’m sent back to my home country, I am wanted by my government. They will imprison and kill me there,” he stated. “I understand that returning to the UK may lead to detention, but at least there, I will live.”
During his visit to Dover, Burnham underscored the necessity of establishing safe pathways for asylum seekers and providing support to those who genuinely need it. However, access to these safe routes is expected to be limited at first, leaving many to continue their perilous journey across the Channel.
As opposition parties intensify their scrutiny of the small boats issue—highlighted by Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp’s recent intervention in the Channel and Reform UK’s proposal to mobilize the UK’s military forces to address the influx—whether the Prime Minister will escalate both rhetoric and government actions in response remains to be seen.
