Last Thursday, striking video footage depicting a surge of thousands of migrants entering Ceuta, Spain’s enclave in North Africa, ignited a wave of reactions from far-right groups online. The situation also drew swift criticism from mainstream European leaders, who quickly linked the unrest to Spain’s liberal immigration policies.
A letter spearheaded by Italy and Denmark, which garnered signatures from 22 EU leaders, seemed to hold Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez responsible for the crisis. The leaders pointed to his recent initiative to regularize undocumented migrants, which had attracted over one million applications, and argued that Europe must address policies that could act as incentives for migration.
This response showcased a notable absence of solidarity from other EU nations towards Spain during a critical moment. In a strong retort, Sánchez condemned the “prejudice, misinformation, and attacks” from his counterparts. However, his defiance, along with subsequent efforts by Brussels to project unity, could not overshadow the perception of his government’s isolation in the face of an emergency at its southern border. Although Sánchez has taken a more prominent position on the global stage over the past year, especially regarding his opposition to the U.S. stance on Iran, the Ceuta incident highlights the challenges facing his progressive foreign policy.
While Sánchez has sought to foster relations with Morocco’s authoritarian regime—particularly concerning its occupation of Western Sahara—this approach conflicts with his otherwise principled stance on issues related to Palestine, Ukraine, and Iran. The events in Ceuta underscore the compromises made in his values. Despite the unprecedented scale of the recent influx, similar occurrences have arisen in the past along the heavily fortified border with Morocco.
The EU’s response to the last major migration surge in 2021 was markedly different. At that time, following the arrival of around 10,000 mostly Moroccan migrants in just two days, the European Parliament united in passing a resolution that accused Morocco of endangering lives to exert political pressure on Spain. The tragic events of last week, where at least 141 individuals lost their lives, also bore signs of such coercive tactics.
Reports indicated that Moroccan border guards offered minimal resistance to the influx, even encouraging migrants to cross into Ceuta. This pattern aligns with a long-standing strategy by the Moroccan government, which has occasionally relaxed border controls during diplomatic tensions with Spain, thereby facilitating mass migrations as a form of leverage.
Five years ago, this tactic was acknowledged by European leaders. However, the current political discourse has shifted to critiquing Spain’s center-left government instead. For Sánchez, this situation starkly illustrates how the rightward shift within the EU positions him as a progressive outlier. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is not alone in using the crisis to advocate for stricter immigration policies. The internal divisions within the EU highlight its vulnerability as a geopolitical entity, as it struggled to mount a coordinated response to what appeared to be a hybrid attack on a member state.
The unanticipated nature of Sánchez’s government’s reaction also points to a degree of complacency regarding the potential fallout from its refusal to grant the U.S. access to its airbases during the Iran conflict. Leading up to the border surge, influential Republicans had already suggested that the Trump administration retaliate by supporting Morocco’s claims to Ceuta and Melilla. The deterioration of U.S.-Spanish relations, coupled with Morocco’s growing significance as a regional ally for the Trump administration, may have encouraged Moroccan leaders to once again target the border.
In addition to Trump’s threats to sever trade relations with Spain, his administration has taken a more direct interest in Spanish domestic politics in recent months. Shortly after Sánchez expressed his stance on Iran, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security provided Spanish investigators with information from a cloned phone, suggesting that former Socialist Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero might have advocated for a pandemic-era loan for a Spanish airline linked to Venezuela. The political motivations behind this intelligence transfer are widely recognized in Madrid, and the ensuing controversy undermined much of Sánchez’s momentum derived from his anti-war position, especially as Zapatero, a crucial ally, faced formal investigation.
The coordinated criticism from Trump and his supporters regarding the Ceuta crisis raises concerns about possible attempts from Washington to further undermine Sánchez politically ahead of Spain’s upcoming general election. Any such moves would likely find a supportive partner in the Vox party, which has remained closely aligned with Trump, even during the Iran conflict. Since the 2023 general election, Vox has emerged as Spain’s fastest-growing political entity, polling in the high teens, and could play a significant role in any future right-wing challenge to Sánchez’s government.
With this backdrop of potential threats, Sánchez must also carefully manage his administration’s relationship with Morocco following its latest coercive actions. Rather than publicly confronting Rabat, he has opted to prioritize the restoration of cooperation and the rapid containment of the crisis, with the majority of the estimated 72,000 migrants returned to Morocco within a day.
However, this pragmatic approach carries inherent risks. Spain’s previous significant clash with Morocco between 2021 and 2022 culminated in a historic concession from Sánchez, highlighting the complex dynamics at play.
