In response to ongoing discussions on social media and within political circles, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released a detailed six-point clarification on Wednesday, addressing concerns regarding the accuracy of GDP data. The ministry firmly defended the methodologies and figures released earlier this week.
On Monday, MoSPI announced that India’s GDP had expanded by 7.8% during the April to June quarter, surpassing many economists’ predictions and greatly exceeding the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate of 7%. The ministry also adjusted previous GDP figures, increasing the growth rate for January to March from 7.8% to 8.6%. These revisions were attributed to the implementation of a new Producer Price Index (PPI), an updated series for the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and the recently released Banking Services Price Index.
Despite this, several economists, former government officials, and politicians have voiced skepticism regarding the reported numbers. Some critics, including former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg, have expressed doubts about the methods used to adjust the manufacturing sector’s gross value added from current to constant prices, suggesting that nominal GDP growth for April to June should have been only 2.6%, indicating almost no real growth.
Without directly naming Garg, MoSPI countered his assertion that the nominal GDP figure for April-June 2025 had been revised downward from Rs 86 lakh crore to Rs 80 lakh crore to enhance the appearance of growth for April-June 2026. The ministry clarified that the Rs 86.05 lakh crore figure was based on the previous GDP series, which utilized the 2011-12 base year, while the updated series launched in February employed 2022-23 as the new base year. This change included new data sources and various methodological adjustments, which had been advocated by economists and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for several years.
According to MoSPI, the initial estimate of India’s GDP for April-June 2025, without inflation adjustments, was revised slightly from Rs 80.32 lakh crore to Rs 80.44 lakh crore in June, reflecting updated indicators and data availability.
MoSPI explained that adjusting the base year of economic metrics and enhancing calculation methods is a common international practice, typically occurring every five years or so. This year, not only has the GDP series been updated, but the Consumer Price Index and the Index of Industrial Production have also seen revisions. The latter helps in compiling GDP data, and the updated IIP series resulted in the nominal GDP figure for April-June 2025 being slightly adjusted to Rs 80.00 lakh crore as per the latest data release.
The ministry emphasized that the shift from Rs 86.05 lakh crore to Rs 80.00 lakh crore stems from successive revisions related to the change in base year, improved data methodologies, and updated indicators. Therefore, MoSPI stated that interpreting this difference as a deliberate adjustment to artificially boost current year growth rates is inaccurate.
Furthermore, the ministry noted that GDP figures from different series should not be compared to derive growth rates.
Current data indicates that India’s GDP, unadjusted for inflation, reached Rs 88.27 lakh crore in April-June. When compared to the previous year’s figure of Rs 80.00 lakh crore, this results in a nominal growth rate of 10.3%.
Critics, including former finance secretary Garg, have used his social media remarks, an article he penned, and his television interviews to question the authenticity of the GDP figures. Economist and former Chief Economic Advisor Kaushik Basu remarked on the social media platform X that while he has not deeply analyzed the numbers, he finds Garg’s insights particularly notable due to his expertise in statistics as a former finance secretary.
The Congress party has also referenced Garg’s television interview, stating on X: “7.8% GDP Growth in Fudged Data, 2.6% in Reality.”
Garg held the position of Economic Affairs Secretary in the Ministry of Finance until July 2019, subsequently serving a brief period as Finance Secretary, the highest-ranking official in the finance ministry. He was reassigned to the Ministry of Power later that year and subsequently opted for voluntary retirement.
In addition to addressing Garg’s claims, MoSPI also responded to other technical inquiries raised by economists, including issues related to double-deflation, the disparity between nominal and real gross value added in the mining sector, and other discrepancies.
Siddharth Upasani serves as a Deputy Associate Editor at The Indian Express, primarily focusing on data and economic trends. Prior to this role, he worked with Moneycontrol and the financial newswire Informist. Outside of his professional commitments, he enjoys sports, fantasy football, and graphic novels.
