In August, India experienced a 26% decrease in oil imports from Russia compared to record levels in July, attributed to reduced availability of Russian exports and intensified competition from Chinese refiners, as indicated by preliminary tanker data. Additionally, maintenance shutdowns at several Indian refineries likely played a role in the diminished crude intake.
The reduction in Russian oil imports was the main factor behind an overall decline of over 8% in India’s total oil imports for August. Conversely, imports from Venezuela reached their highest monthly volume since 2020, following the US decision to allow Venezuelan oil back into the global market. After nearly a year without imports, India resumed purchasing Venezuelan oil a few months ago.
According to vessel tracking from Kpler, India imported 2.08 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in August, marking a decline of 26.3% from July’s peak of 2.82 million bpd. Overall, India’s oil imports in August averaged 4.62 million bpd, down 8.4% from the previous month’s 5.04 million bpd.
The share of Russian crude in India’s oil supply decreased to 45% in August, down from 55.9% in July. Kpler reports suggest that this shift reflects a normalization of the market rather than a permanent reduction in Russian crude imports. Future flows are anticipated to stabilize between 2.0 and 2.5 million bpd, indicating that Russian oil will likely continue to be a significant component of India’s crude supply.
However, evolving energy market dynamics, including constraints on Russia’s export capacity and escalating competition from China for Russian oil, may pressure import volumes. Abu Dhabi-based energy analyst Natalia Katona highlighted that Russia is reducing crude exports to both India and the global market, while China is increasingly vying for the available shipments. The upcoming months may reveal whether August’s decline is a temporary phenomenon or indicative of a longer trend towards reduced availability and higher prices for Russian oil in the Indian market.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil and gas infrastructure have significantly impacted Russian oil exports. Attacks on export facilities in the Black Sea present a real threat to the safe navigation of energy vessels in that area. According to Katona, the cost of transporting oil from the Black Sea has surged, making alternative routes more appealing despite their own set of risks. For example, shipping a Suezmax tanker from Novorossiysk to India now costs approximately $20 million, or about $20 per barrel, compared to roughly $13 per barrel from Baltic Sea ports. However, vessels departing from Baltic ports face the risk of detention or seizure by European nations.
As a result, there has been an increased reliance on the Northern Sea Route, especially during August and September, which typically sees peak traffic due to lower ice levels. The threats posed by drone attacks in the Black Sea have further encouraged Russian exporters to use this route, making China a more cost-effective destination for Russian oil.
The competitive landscape for Russian oil has intensified due to several factors, including reduced Russian exports as the country prioritizes domestic refinery production in response to Ukrainian attacks on its energy sector, alongside a decrease in the availability of Iranian oil for Chinese refiners amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Since March 2026, India’s strategy for crude imports has undergone a significant shift due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have constrained oil flows from West Asia and heightened shipping risks. Russian crude continues to be a cornerstone of India’s import strategy, while refiners have actively sought to diversify their sources by increasing imports from Africa, North America, and South America to compensate for the decline in Gulf supplies. Notably, Venezuelan oil imports surged by 60.2% month-on-month in August, reaching 350,000 bpd according to Kpler.
Historically, about 40% of India’s crude imports have transited through the Strait of Hormuz, and a substantial portion of that supply has been disrupted. Furthermore, imports from Iraq, India’s second-largest supplier of crude, have plummeted to a fraction of pre-war levels, and oil supplies from other West Asian countries have also seen significant reductions. However, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been able to maintain exports to India due to pipeline infrastructure that circumvents the Strait of Hormuz.
Before the imposition of US sanctions on Venezuela in 2019, Indian private sector giant Reliance Industries (RIL) was a regular purchaser of Venezuelan crude. Following the sanctions, imports from Venezuela ceased almost immediately. In 2019, Venezuela ranked as New Delhi’s fifth-largest oil supplier, contributing around 16 million tonnes, or approximately 117 million barrels, to Indian refineries.
In October 2023, the US relaxed sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector, allowing RIL and other Indian refiners to resume imports for a six-month period, after which the waiver expired. RIL managed to restart Venezuelan oil imports again after receiving a sanctions exemption from the US. However, imports were halted in the summer of 2025 when the Trump administration threatened to impose higher tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan crude.
Sukalp Sharma serves as the Deputy Associate Editor at The Indian Express and covers a range of topics, particularly in the energy and aviation sectors. With over 16 years of journalistic experience, his work encompasses areas such as politics, development, and equity markets.
