The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to intensify further, possibly becoming the most severe instance recorded, with impacts projected to extend into 2027. This development raises concerns about extreme weather conditions in the upcoming year.
The WMO has indicated a high probability that El Niño will persist until February, with predictions that it will reach a “very strong” status in the coming months. This natural weather occurrence contributes to warming surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which in turn affects global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo remarked in Geneva that if current trends continue, this El Niño could surpass any previously recorded events since monitoring began four decades ago. The organization also noted that while El Niño is anticipated to peak by the end of this year, its climatic effects will be felt well into 2027, as heat absorbed by the oceans can take longer to affect atmospheric temperatures.
According to Saulo, the current El Niño is likely to contribute to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record, and she cautioned that it would not be surprising if this record were broken. The WMO emphasized that the phenomenon is firmly in place and is expected to have significant implications for rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to increased risks of floods, droughts, and extreme heat.
It is important to note that while El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon not caused by climate change, scientists anticipate it will worsen the already elevated temperatures resulting from the burning of fossil fuels and will likely intensify extreme weather events. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres highlighted that the planet is experiencing unprecedented conditions as sea surface temperatures continue to rise, placing the world in a precarious situation regarding extreme weather.
Saulo warned that this exceptional El Niño could severely impact communities and economies worldwide, with current disruptions from droughts and flooding expected to escalate as the phenomenon intensifies. She urged disaster management authorities and sectors sensitive to climate change, such as agriculture, health, energy, and water, to prepare urgently.
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts approximately nine to twelve months, alternating with its counterpart, La Niña. The WMO anticipates that this particular El Niño, fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific, will reach very strong intensity in the months ahead. The UN agency categorizes El Niño events into four levels: weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, with this event poised to achieve the highest classification.
The likelihood that El Niño will continue through February is nearly 100 percent, according to the WMO. This phenomenon can significantly alter weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometers away from the tropical Pacific. While each El Niño event is unique, major occurrences often result in familiar outcomes, such as drought conditions across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia, and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India, and changes in rainfall distribution across the tropics.
Forecasts for September to November indicate a higher probability of above-normal temperatures across nearly all land areas, alongside rainfall patterns that reflect a distinct atmospheric response to the strong El Niño in the Pacific. The index measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in the central eastern equatorial Pacific has shown a significant increase, averaging 1.5°C above normal from May to July, with weekly values from late July to mid-August indicating further intensification, ranging from 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average. In certain regions, subsurface ocean temperatures were recorded as more than 8°C above the norm during July and early August.
