The Houthi rebels in Yemen are intensifying their efforts to gain complete dominance over the nation’s Red Sea coastline, recently asserting control over the vital port city of Mocha. This development marks a significant escalation in hostilities between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, representing the most severe clashes witnessed in recent years.
The potential capture of the coastline poses a strategic threat to both Saudi Arabia and the United States, as it would bring Iran and its allies closer to controlling critical maritime routes for Western shipping. These routes include the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf, both crucial for international trade.
Experts suggest that a decrease in fighting, which had been minimal since the UN-brokered ceasefire in April 2022, is now improbable. This upsurge in conflict is perceived as the Houthis’ attempt to open a second front in the ongoing tensions between Iran and the U.S., coinciding with the struggle for dominance over the Strait of Hormuz.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a defense and security think tank based in London, has indicated that the situation in Yemen is deteriorating rapidly. It noted that the internationally recognized Yemeni government is initiating new military fronts against the Houthis, hoping to exert pressure on the rebels that they cannot sustain.
The recent fighting has also sparked discussions regarding Saudi Arabia’s potential invocation of the Mecca defense pact, which includes commitments from Pakistan and Turkey to provide military support. However, this agreement is primarily defensive and may not extend to Saudi operations in Yemen.
By expanding their control over the Red Sea coastline south of Hodeidah, the Houthis aim to coerce both Saudi Arabia and the U.S. into negotiating a resolution that would lift the U.S. blockade on Iranian oil shipments in the Gulf. Recently, former President Donald Trump stated that he does not anticipate the conflict with Iran to conclude before the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in early November.
The current phase of escalation began when the Houthis launched drone and missile attacks on energy facilities and cities in southern Saudi Arabia. In retaliation, Saudi military forces executed at least 15 airstrikes between September 3 and September 7. According to the conflict data monitor Acled, this five-day period alone resulted in 276 casualties.
The Houthis have since claimed control of Mocha in Taiz province, as well as the nearby city of Hays and the Khalid ibn al-Walid military base, the largest in the region. One estimate linked to the Houthis suggests that their forces have taken over more than 2,320 square miles (6,000 square kilometers) of territory.
General Tareq Saleh, who leads the Yemeni government forces, acknowledged that he had orchestrated a strategic withdrawal south of Mocha to regroup in a more secure area. He stated, “Our forces on the western coast have endured significant losses – both in terms of lives and injuries – while defending against the Houthi offensive, which was orchestrated and supported by Iran.”
Saudi Arabia continues to leverage its air superiority to target Houthi positions, although government officials have recognized the rebels’ advances along the coast and their missile attacks on the strategic Red Sea islands of Zuqar and Hanish.
The clashes have been widespread, affecting regions such as Ad Dali, al-Bayda, Marib, Shabwah, al-Jawf, Hodeidah, and Taiz. In the early stages of this renewed conflict, the Houthis faced setbacks in certain areas as they struggled to manage multiple frontlines.
The Houthis are likely counting on political fragmentation within the Yemeni government, which is reflected in the lack of cohesive military strategy, to gradually tilt the balance in their favor. The United Arab Emirates, a significant player in southern Yemen that had previously supported the Southern Transitional Council’s separatist forces, withdrew its military and financial backing at the beginning of the year. The southern forces have since refused to engage in battles outside their own territory.
According to Sherwan Hindreen Ali, a Yemen analyst for Acled, “A reduction in hostilities in the near future appears unlikely, as both factions are escalating their actions in hopes of inflicting sufficient damage to compel the other to negotiate.” He further noted that military capabilities on both sides have become more evenly matched compared to the period immediately preceding the 2022 ceasefire, during which the Houthis held a significant advantage.
Ali added that hostilities are expected to remain concentrated along the Red Sea coast in Hodeidah and Taiz, where both the Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government are keen to control the territory to deny the other party effective authority over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
This ongoing conflict has also contributed to a surge in oil prices, pushing them above $100 per barrel after previously hovering around $80.
The escalation of violence this week has been a gradual process, beginning with a senior Houthi delegation’s visit to Tehran for the funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in July. The delegation returned on an Iranian aircraft that Saudi Arabia refused to allow to land in Houthi-controlled Sana’a, prompting the Saudis to bomb the runway. This led the Houthis to declare a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, which they termed a “blockade for a blockade.” This declaration on July 20 was followed by attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery on July 25 and on a tanker near Yanbu on August 24.
As a result of these developments, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on the Red Sea route for its trade, particularly after Iranian actions restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Israeli military engagements.
