A newly developed tool designed to assess bushfire exposure risks in Tasmania indicates that 8.6 percent of the state’s buildings are located within high-risk zones. This comprehensive map has been created by a climate technology firm based in Hobart, aiming to enhance the preparedness of communities and local councils for bushfire events.
This spring, specific regions in northern and northeastern Tasmania are expected to experience increased bushfire threats, attributed to below-average rainfall levels. The analysis reveals that nearly 9 percent of Tasmanian structures are at considerable risk of bushfires this season, according to the mapping undertaken by a Hobart-based company.
Geoneon, which has been evaluating bushfire risks for properties in Greater Hobart since 2022, has broadened its focus to encompass the entire state this year. “Our initiative is centered around improving data accessibility, enabling people to make informed decisions,” stated Alex Bandini-Maeder, co-founder and Chief Technology Officer of Geoneon.
Measuring and forecasting bushfire occurrences is complex, as it involves understanding how fuel loads accumulate and transform over time. Dr. Bandini-Maeder explained that the team utilized satellite imagery from the previous year to analyze moisture levels statewide. Advanced machine learning techniques were then employed to assess vegetation characteristics such as size, height, structure, and density, along with the topographical features of the region.
The resulting map categorizes the bushfire risk into ten distinct classes based on wildfire severity, illustrating how fuel, terrain, and climatic factors influence the intensity of fires. It also includes a wildfire exposure index, which estimates the potential impact of fire on buildings.
From the analysis of over 450,000 building footprints, nearly 39,000—equivalent to 8.6 percent—are classified within the highest risk categories, ranging from 7 to 10. While Geoneon hopes that this index will aid communities in their preparedness efforts, it is important to note its limitations. The tool does not indicate the origins of potential fires, their spread, or current conditions, nor does it assess the likelihood of a fire igniting or the susceptibility of individual buildings.
Geoneon specializes in utilizing geospatial data, including satellite-derived information, to facilitate a clearer understanding of environmental changes for governments and communities. The project originated in 2021 when the company received funding from the National Emergency Management Agency to collaborate with Hobart City Council in identifying buildings most at risk of bushfire exposure. Since then, the initiative has expanded annually.
Roxane Bandini-Maeder, the company’s CEO, noted that more local governments in Tasmania have shown interest in participating in the project over the years. This year’s statewide bushfire exposure index initiative has been developed pro bono with support from the Kingborough Council.
Ms. Bandini-Maeder highlighted the project’s objective: to assist local governments in determining optimal investment areas for bushfire preparedness. “We possess the data, while they understand their communities. The goal is to integrate the two,” she explained.
In early October, the Tasmania Fire Service issued an advisory for communities statewide to begin preparations for the upcoming bushfire season. According to data from the Bureau of Meteorology and the National Emergency Management Agency, certain areas in the north and northeast of the state are facing elevated bushfire risks due to diminished rainfall. This aligns with forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization, which indicates that the El Niño weather pattern is likely to strengthen, potentially becoming the most intense on record.
Ms. Bandini-Maeder remarked on the project’s success thus far, noting that despite budget constraints, local governments have actively utilized the bushfire index as an empowerment tool for planning and preparedness. “We have witnessed neighborhoods collaborating to enhance their readiness ahead of the fire season because they now have data to support their efforts,” she stated.
Looking ahead, depending on the response to this year’s project, the team is hopeful about extending their initiative to additional regions across the country in the future.
