Israel is set to conduct elections for its Knesset, the national legislature, on October 27, amidst a backdrop of multifaceted conflicts. This marks the first electoral event since the devastating Hamas assault on October 7, 2023, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was reportedly forewarned about. In the aftermath, Israel has significantly targeted Gaza, leading to a dire humanitarian situation, while also escalating tensions with Iran and Lebanon.
The electoral contest appears competitive. Netanyahu’s Likud party, which has governed alongside a far-right and religious coalition for the past four years, is currently falling behind in opinion polls. As the Prime Minister seems unable to resolve the ongoing conflicts, his prospects of securing victory are uncertain.
Nevertheless, Netanyahu is Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister, renowned for his ability to stage political comebacks and build unexpected coalitions. This raises questions about the upcoming elections: What issues will resonate with Israeli voters? Is there a viable alternative to Netanyahu? Will any party prioritize ending the wars or addressing the violence perpetrated by Israeli settlers in the West Bank? What will become of the far-right members in Netanyahu’s cabinet? How do Arab citizens feel about the current political climate?
Professor Tamar Hermann, a senior research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute and the academic director of the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research, provides insights on these pressing questions. Hermann, who leads the Annual Israeli Democracy Index and the monthly Israeli Voice Index, shared her perspectives with journalist Moinuddin Ahmad.
As the October 27 elections draw near, what key issues are emerging for voters this time around?
According to a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute conducted in August, security and foreign relations emerged as the primary concerns for voters. Economic issues and the cost of living received significant attention as well. Interestingly, before the October 7 attacks, the public was predominantly focused on economic matters, which were heavily emphasized by political parties.
In the lead-up to the elections, all political factions agree on the importance of national security, although they differ in their approaches to violence in the West Bank. The current government and its allies have shown leniency towards violent settlers, while a change in government could lead to a more stringent stance from security forces. Overall, security remains a pivotal topic in Israeli discourse.
Historically, Netanyahu has been adept at maintaining cohesion within his right-wing coalition. Given the current post-war national security concerns and the accountability following the October 7 attacks, do you believe he can secure a 61-seat majority with his current allies?
Current polling indicates that reaching a 61-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset appears challenging for Netanyahu. Nonetheless, he is uniquely positioned among current politicians to keep his bloc intact due to his political acumen. While I personally do not favor him, his enduring influence in Israeli politics is noteworthy.
Despite failing to fulfill various promises made at the onset of the conflict—such as overthrowing the Iranian regime, dismantling Hezbollah, and neutralizing Hamas—Netanyahu remains the leading candidate for Prime Minister.
Leaders from the center-right and centrist opposition, like Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, are showing promising poll numbers. Do they present a unified policy alternative, or are they merely driven by an ‘anyone-but-Bibi’ sentiment?
This is indeed a significant concern. While they have highlighted the potential military drafting of ultra-Orthodox men as a common ground, there is considerable disagreement on collaborating with Arab parties. Recent discussions, including a meeting at Yair Lapid’s home, resulted in a vague commitment to avoid undermining one another, which reflects ongoing tensions within the opposition.
The contentious debate surrounding the drafting of ultra-Orthodox men and laws about religious exemptions has caused friction within Netanyahu’s coalition, alienating secular and national-religious voters. How detrimental is this issue to the alliance between Likud and Haredi parties like Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ)?
This issue is indeed problematic, as the Haredi parties, particularly Yahadut HaTorah, had anticipated that Netanyahu would acquiesce to their demands. Their disappointment has led to threats of alignment with the Eisenkot-led coalition. However, such threats may be ineffective at this stage, as they cannot enact any laws until a new government is established, and it seems unlikely that the Haredi parties would genuinely join Eisenkot’s camp.
Figures such as Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionism) and Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) have risen from the political margins to hold significant ministerial positions. Have their ideologies fundamentally altered the mainstream Israeli right, or could they find themselves marginalized again if a strong centrist coalition takes shape post-elections?
There is a distinct difference between Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, as Ben-Gvir appeals to a different demographic, being non-Ashkenazi and more representative of peripheral communities. In contrast, Smotrich is an Ashkenazi ideologue. Despite both being on the radical right, their differing approaches have led to a lack of personal rapport over the past four years. While they may not align perfectly, they remain key players in the ongoing political landscape.
