Shortly after delivering a divisive address to the United Nations General Assembly in September, Donald Trump convened a group of approximately twelve Latin American leaders who share his political views. During this meeting in New York, he expressed pride that all seven right-wing candidates he endorsed had triumphed in presidential elections across the region since the onset of his second term.
“Everyone I’ve supported has emerged victorious,” Trump stated to the leaders of the Shield of the Americas, a coalition of fifteen nations united against drug cartels, all led by right-wing or far-right governments.
As a result of these electoral outcomes, combined with the U.S. intervention in Venezuela that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro, only six countries in Latin America currently have leftist administrations: Brazil, Mexico, the smaller nations of Uruguay and Guatemala, along with the isolated regimes of Cuba and Nicaragua.
On Sunday, voters in Brazil will participate in a presidential election that many believe will significantly influence the future of the region’s largest nation for the next four years.
Given Mexico’s proximity to the U.S. and its unique economic ties, analysts consider Brazil to be one of the few remaining countries in the region that might resist Trump’s influence, a dynamic that could shift dramatically based on the election’s outcome.
Current polls reveal a tightly contested race between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old leftist incumbent aiming for a fourth non-consecutive term, and Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old far-right senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
“Trump genuinely believes the Americas should be considered his backyard,” remarked Pedro Telles, a professor at Brazil’s FGV University School of International Relations.
“Mexico will continue to play a significant role, and its president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is among the most popular leftist leaders. However, if Flávio wins, it would be a considerable setback for the left and a significant advancement for the global far-right agenda,” Telles added.
Sandra Borda Guzmán, an associate professor of political science at Colombia’s Universidad de los Andes, emphasized the stakes involved. “A far-right victory would align the region unconditionally with U.S. policies, rather than seizing the opportunity to enhance our regional autonomy,” she stated.
Lula and Bolsonaro have starkly contrasting views on the U.S., particularly regarding Trump’s primary foreign policy initiative in the region—the so-called “war on drugs,” which has justified numerous airstrikes that resulted in over 230 fatalities, as well as joint military operations involving U.S. personnel on the ground.
While Bolsonaro has committed to joining the Shield of the Americas and adopting a stringent approach to crime, Lula has expressed concerns about national sovereignty, lamenting the perceived inferiority complex of Latin American leaders involved in Trump’s coalition.
The relationship between Lula and Trump has fluctuated, ranging from periods of silence to public displays of camaraderie, but it currently appears strained. The Brazilian president and Democratic members of the U.S. Congress have accused Washington of attempting to sway the election in favor of Bolsonaro.
“Brazil is a significant target,” noted Michael Shifter, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, adding that amidst ongoing conflicts in Iran, Ukraine, and the Israel-Palestine situation, U.S. foreign policy is facing challenges globally.
A Bolsonaro victory in Brazil, he suggested, would be touted by Trump as creating an “almost completely aligned region.”
At the recent Shield of the Americas meeting, Trump emphasized that the agenda extends beyond security concerns. He highlighted the “tremendous natural wealth” of Latin American countries, insisting it should not be “seized by hostile foreign powers,” a statement largely interpreted as directed at China.
Access to Brazil’s rare earth elements and critical minerals was a condition set by Washington in exchange for refraining from imposing tariffs, a proposal Lula rejected. In contrast, Bolsonaro has positioned these natural resources as a potential “solution” to help the U.S. reduce its dependency on China.
“The fate of democracy is also at stake,” Shifter added, pointing out that Bolsonaro is running only because his father is unable to do so—Jair Bolsonaro is currently under house arrest following a conviction related to an attempted coup to overturn his loss to Lula in the 2022 elections.
“This is not merely about one more country shifting to the right; it involves a right-wing movement that has a troubling relationship with democratic principles,” he stated.
As has been the case in recent elections across Latin America, this race features other candidates but is primarily polarized between the two frontrunners. Lula and Bolsonaro have alternated in leading the polls during the final stretch, making the election’s outcome uncertain. Should neither candidate secure over 50% of the votes, a runoff will be held on October 25.
Bolsonaro’s prior attempt at an executive position ended poorly when he placed fourth in the 2016 mayoral race in Rio. Nevertheless, analysts believe there are several factors contributing to his emergence as a credible challenger against a three-time president.
Although unemployment, poverty, and inflation have decreased and average incomes have increased, household debt has also risen—something many attribute to unregulated online betting, which the elder Bolsonaro left untouched until Lula imposed a ban shortly before the election.
The incumbent’s campaign has faced its own corruption allegations, still under investigation, involving his son and a former aide, while a separate scandal involving Supreme Court justices with no ties to Lula may have negatively affected the president’s image.
Consequently, many perceive Bolsonaro’s support as stemming from a direct transfer of his father’s voter base, combined with a general anti-Lula sentiment.
“I plan to vote for Flávio, but not because I believe he is the best choice,” said Bruna.
