Maine’s diverse landscape, known for its rugged coastline and mountainous terrain, often experiences gusty winds. However, the current Senate race in Maine appears somewhat insulated from the prevailing national political trends that generally favor Democrats. Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins is in a competitive tie with Democrat Troy Jackson, despite the state’s overall Democratic inclination.
Collins has managed to attract a significant number of voters, including many Democrats, by focusing on local issues rather than national politics, which has contributed to the neck-and-neck nature of the race. She is perceived as more capable of securing federal funding for the state, giving her a potential advantage.
Jackson faces the obstacle of Collins appealing to 20% of voters who express disapproval of former President Trump, a figure that surpasses the national average for Republican congressional candidates. His support primarily comes from constituents who believe Collins aligns too closely with Trump, those opposed to tariffs, individuals wanting to see national Democrats gain control of the Senate, and voters favoring change over established experience.
A notable 10% of voters remain undecided, indicating that the race could sway in either direction. Even among those who believe Jackson’s policies would improve their financial situation, Collins still garners support from nearly one-fifth of that demographic.
Despite a general sentiment among Maine voters that Trump’s policies have negatively impacted the state’s economy—where Jackson tends to garner the majority of support—Collins’ long tenure does not seem to hinder her appeal. In fact, she performs particularly well among voters who have previously cast their ballots for her.
Jackson may be experiencing repercussions from the primary process, as 40% of Democrats and a majority of independents express a desire for an alternative candidate. Furthermore, Jackson’s support lags behind that of the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Hannah Pingree, whose lead in the governor’s race aligns more closely with Maine’s overall partisan trends. Pingree attracts some voters who are choosing to split their tickets in favor of Collins.
This analysis is based on a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted with a representative sample of 1,114 registered voters in Maine from September 23 to October 1, 2026. The sample was adjusted for gender, age, race, and educational background according to U.S. Census data, as well as the anticipated 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ± 4.7 points.
David Van Riper contributed to this report.
