A political marketing specialist has indicated that several critical Labor constituencies in Queensland are heavily reliant on staff holding working holiday visas, and recent modifications to the associated system are having a significant impact.
Reports suggest that many backpackers in the northern regions of the state are either departing or expressing intentions to leave, particularly if they had been aware of the changes beforehand.
Experts warn that Labor could jeopardize their chances in the upcoming federal election without a transparent strategy to address these issues.
Rocco Raseri, an Italian backpacker who has spent six months working as a chef in Far North Queensland, will today qualify for his third year working holiday visa. However, due to recent adjustments in the visa program, the available spots have plummeted from 31,000 last year to just over 5,000 now.
“Given the uncertainty, I might not have chosen to work these six months at all,” said the 27-year-old. “It feels like a lot of effort for no guarantee of being able to stay.”
Raseri is among thousands of temporary seasonal workers who contribute to Australia’s winter tourism and serve as a vital workforce in the nation’s third-largest agricultural area in Far North Queensland. If he had known about the lack of certainty regarding his visa, he would have pursued different options, such as seeking sponsorship in a larger city. “I would have traveled across Australia instead of spending six months in Cairns,” he reflected.
His shift in perspective raises concerns for businesses in areas that depend on backpacker labor, and political analysts believe it may pose a risk for Labor in the next federal election.
Andrew Hughes, a political marketing expert from the Australian National University, stated that the recent changes to working holiday visas place regional representatives in a precarious position. He explained that the visa policy seems to favor Labor’s urban voters at the expense of rural regions that rely on backpackers.
Seats in the Northern Territory’s Lingiari, Western Australia’s Bullwinkel, and various constituencies in Tasmania and New South Wales are now uncertain, according to Hughes. “It presents a wedge issue and creates a narrative that the government has overlooked the needs of regional areas,” he noted.
Moreover, he emphasized that Queensland’s electoral dynamics are particularly sensitive, especially in light of the increasing popularity of One Nation, with the far north’s Leichhardt constituency being a critical battleground. Labor’s Matt Smith secured the historically Coalition-held seat, which stretches from Cairns to the Torres Strait, with a 9.5 percent swing in the last federal election, adding to Labor’s representation in Queensland.
Despite this progress, the Liberal National Party (LNP) narrowly clinched the statewide vote by slightly more than 1 percent. Recent polling from Newspoll indicates that One Nation has garnered 36 percent support in Queensland, surpassing Labor’s 25 percent.
Hughes pointed out that the visa policy presents a “significant” challenge for Smith in maintaining control over this vital Labor seat. He remarked, “The key question is whether he is attuned to the needs of his entire electorate or merely those who are more aligned with Labor’s interests.”
Labor is eager to maintain a foothold in Leichhardt, a seat that was a Coalition stronghold for many years under Warren Entsch, who was known for his willingness to cross party lines.
Maxine Newlands, a political scientist at James Cook University, noted that Queensland tends to defy national trends in federal elections, making it a focal point for major parties. She added that regional representatives like Smith do not necessarily need to oppose the visa policy publicly but should focus on presenting viable alternatives to restore voter confidence.
“Solutions need to be community-driven and solution-oriented,” she stated, highlighting the importance of Working Holiday Visa holders as significant contributors to Australia’s net overseas migration and their central role in this ongoing discussion.
Newlands warned of a potential recurrence of workforce shortages similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that voters will demand accountability from their local representatives as the election approaches.
This week, Smith communicated to ABC Far North that he has been engaging with key tourism and agricultural organizations in Cairns to explore potential solutions. “I want to bring these ideas to [Immigration Minister Tony Burke] to show what is being considered here,” he expressed.
He acknowledged that the current visa framework is failing to attract sufficient workers to regional areas. Notably, over a third of the estimated 211,000 working holidaymakers are from the UK, where they are no longer required to engage in regional work to extend their visas. “They’re congregating in places like Bondi, while we’re feeling the impact here,” he explained.
Smith emphasized the importance of ensuring that regions like his continue to receive the workforce necessary to thrive in tourism. He suggested that expanding the Pacific Area Labor Mobility scheme could be a beneficial avenue for addressing regional needs while he collaborates with stakeholders.
“We must avoid hindering the tourism sector, especially after the challenges it has faced in recent years,” he concluded.
Hughes concurred, noting that Labor’s motivations in assisting Pacific island nations in light of climate change align with the overarching migration policy. However, he expressed skepticism about whether the recent changes to working holiday visas will alleviate migration tensions, suggesting that they may ultimately be counterproductive for Labor.
