According to a recent comprehensive poll conducted by the Messina Group (TMG), nearly half of the electorate supports Andy Burnham’s inclination to pursue rejoining the European Union after the forthcoming election. However, some cabinet ministers, wary of reigniting Brexit-related divisions, are privately advising him to tread carefully.
The poll indicates that a re-evaluation of the United Kingdom’s relationship with the EU could potentially enhance Labour’s electoral support by as much as seven percentage points, should the Prime Minister propose a new referendum advocating for re-entry into the EU.
A significant portion of the respondents, nearly one-third, believe that a referendum on membership should be prioritized, while over 16% think that a mandate from a general election would suffice. Similarly, another 16% feel that a decision made by Parliament would be adequate.
The results strengthen the position of those within Downing Street who are advocating for a commitment at the next election to at least negotiate the possibility of rejoining the EU, a goal the Prime Minister has expressed a desire to witness during his lifetime.
During his inaugural speech as leader at the Labour conference, Burnham announced a review of the potential paths for the UK’s future interactions with Europe, suggesting that fully rejoining the EU should be among the options considered.
Nevertheless, there is apprehension among certain Labour MPs, particularly those representing areas that voted for Brexit, that exploring public support for rejoining could pose significant political risks and inadvertently benefit the Reform party.
Two-thirds of cabinet members, including Burnham, his deputy Louise Haigh, Chancellor John Healey, and Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband, represent constituencies that favored Brexit and have previously committed to honoring the 2016 referendum outcome. However, public sentiment appears to be evolving.
Before Burnham’s address, several ministers voiced caution regarding the initiative. Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, noted that while improving defense and security ties could be beneficial, extending beyond the EU reset plans left by Keir Starmer was “not achievable nor advisable.”
Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds pointed out that “constitutional questions” surrounding Britain’s relationship with the EU are generating uncertainty for businesses. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood remarked that rejoining is “not a simple process” and may carry unacceptable costs.
The government seems to be shifting its focus toward critiquing those who made substantial promises regarding Brexit yet failed to fulfill them, rather than suggesting that those who supported leaving the EU made an erroneous choice. This change in stance has raised concerns among Burnham’s advisors.
One cabinet minister shared with the Guardian: “Brexit clearly hasn’t delivered, and the commitments made have not been upheld, so Andy is justified in raising the question of our future relationship. However, he must proceed cautiously to avoid rekindling divisions.”
Another cabinet member stated: “Andy is correct in asserting that we need clarity about our long-term relationship. Issues of security and trade cooperation have gained prominence over the past decade. Yet, whether this translates into a genuine public desire for substantial change remains uncertain. My constituents seem to be wary.”
A third minister remarked on the varying opinions within the cabinet, highlighting that the Made in Europe initiative necessitates discussions with the EU regarding the long-term relationship, as their current proposals present significant challenges.
Another cabinet source noted: “There’s an understanding among several ministers representing leave-voting districts that opinions will vary, and arguments concerning the future must be carefully framed in terms of national interest.”
A fifth minister expressed skepticism about rejoining the EU, questioning the terms of re-entry and their potential effectiveness in resolving the public’s issues. However, he acknowledged that addressing global challenges requires a closer relationship with the EU.
The TMG survey, which sampled 11,461 individuals and was weighted according to the referendum outcome, was conducted from September 12 to 24 and examined seven different relational frameworks with the EU. The option to rejoin was the most favored, with 49% in support and 28.5% opposed.
The second most popular option involved maintaining the current relationship while striving to reduce trade barriers, supported by 48.2%, with 20.9% against. Following closely was the proposal for a customs union, with 47.1% in favor versus 20.7% opposed.
Support for joining the single market and for associate membership were nearly equal, with 45.5% and 45.1% approval, respectively, while 42% favored sticking with the existing relationship. The least popular option, moving further away from the EU, garnered only 27.9% support, with 41.2% against it.
A plurality of respondents, 25.9%, expressed a desire for the UK to rejoin the EU immediately, while 22.9% preferred this to occur within three years, and 8.4% over the next decade. Conversely, 23% did not wish for any closer relationship.
The TMG also evaluated various political messages associated with each option to determine their potential impact on Labour’s electoral prospects, finding that support for all scenarios advocating closer ties increased Labour’s vote share by between 4.3 and 7.4 percentage points, primarily drawing votes from the Greens and Liberal Democrats.
Additionally, the polling revealed that over two-thirds of voters prioritize trading with the EU over relationships with the US or China, should the UK need to choose. Furthermore, four out of five respondents wish to retain the pound, and a majority, 53.4%, favor remaining in the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), with only 24.2% opposed.
Nonetheless, the survey also indicated that the arguments surrounding Brexit, particularly those concerning immigration control and sovereignty, continue to resonate with the electorate.
Senior officials at Downing Street have been engaging with think tanks and polling organizations to navigate the evolving political landscape as the discussion surrounding the UK’s relationship with the EU gains momentum.
