A 12-year-old administration, grappling with dwindling support and striving for an unusual fourth consecutive term, is led by a premier who has only been in office for a short time. Meanwhile, the opposition, eager to move past years of internal strife, shows promise in the polls but must secure a significant number of seats to gain control of the government.
The upcoming Victorian state election is shaping up to be one of the most intricate and unpredictable in modern Australian political history, especially with the remarkable rise of One Nation. The past year has seen extensive commentary on Pauline Hanson’s party, and this election will provide crucial insights into the erosion of the two-party system that has historically dominated Australian politics since World War II.
One Nation has already demonstrated its potential to disrupt the political landscape, as evidenced by the recent South Australian elections where the party outperformed the Liberals and secured four seats in the lower house, positioning itself as Labor’s primary challenger in numerous other regions. This occurred despite the formidable presence of a strong state Labor government and a premier who faced no real threat to re-election.
In contrast, the Labor government in Victoria is in a more precarious position, having already shown signs of vulnerability in working-class outer-suburban constituencies that may be susceptible to One Nation’s appeal. Similarly, the Liberal and National parties could face challenges in maintaining their strongholds, particularly as they seek 16 additional seats across Victoria.
Even with a potential victory, Liberal leader Jess Wilson may find her ability to govern hampered by the presence of One Nation, which could limit her party’s parliamentary majority. The question remains: will One Nation falter in crucial seats when faced with the most robust Liberal campaign since its resurgence?
Additionally, the presence of Greens candidates in Melbourne and independent candidates statewide could further complicate the major parties’ efforts to achieve a governing majority.
Recent polling suggests a decline in support for both the government and the opposition since the last election, with Labor’s primary vote now over 10 percentage points lower than it was in 2022. The electorate appears to be divided almost equally among Labor, the Coalition, One Nation, and other parties.
Victorian Labor has a strong electoral history, having won nine out of the last twelve state elections and governed for 33 out of the past 44 years. The state has earned a reputation, as former Prime Minister John Howard described, as the “Massachusetts of Australia.” Labor’s resurgence followed a long period of weak and fleeting governance prior to 1982.
However, prolonged stability in politics is not guaranteed. Labor faces the risk of significant changes in this election that could not only push it into opposition but also make future returns to power more challenging. A key element of Labor’s strength in Victoria has been the substantial “red wall” it has established across many regions.
Traditionally, electoral battles in the state have been most intense in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs and along the southeastern train lines, with Labor maintaining tight control over regional cities in western Victoria since the defeat of the Kennett government in 1999. The Liberal Party has not secured a seat in northern or western Melbourne this century.
Labor has also gained from gradual demographic shifts in Melbourne, as the city expands outward with new housing developments. This growth has seen traditionally Liberal-leaning areas in eastern Melbourne lose seats, while Labor-supporting regions north and west of the Yarra have gained representation.
However, four years ago, Labor faced setbacks in several of its previously secure seats, with its primary vote declining by 15 to 20 points in certain areas, particularly in the western suburbs. Much of that lost support did not shift to the Liberal Party but rather dispersed among minor parties and independents.
The Liberal Party hopes to break its losing streak in these constituencies, but it remains to be seen whether voters will view One Nation, which did not compete in these areas during the 2022 elections, as a viable alternative this year.
The Liberal Party approaches this election with renewed optimism regarding its chances of gaining power. Despite undergoing leadership changes, the party has unified behind Jess Wilson, who has been at the helm since November. Nevertheless, her route to the premiership is complex and involves several critical steps.
If non-government parties can prevent Labor and the Greens from achieving a combined majority, requiring a net loss of 12 seats, a Wilson premiership would likely be the outcome. However, even if the current government is ousted, the configuration of the new government will depend heavily on how well the opposition can expand its seat count.
The Liberals and Nationals must secure 16 additional seats to govern outright, which presents a considerable challenge. The opposition will need to capture seats beyond their usual electoral battlegrounds in Melbourne’s east and southeast and also mitigate potential losses to One Nation.
