On Saturday afternoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) officially announced the cessation of the southwest monsoon in Maharashtra. This year, 21 districts, including Nagpur, Chandrapur, Hingoli, Beed, and Dharashiv, experienced below-average rainfall during the monsoon season.
Among the remaining areas, the city of Mumbai and its suburbs, along with Thane, Pune, Raigad, and Ratnagiri, received rainfall within the expected range, while Nashik and Palghar experienced above-average rainfall.
The IMD’s announcement of the monsoon withdrawal comes in the wake of a strengthening El Niño phenomenon, which has contributed to the insufficient rainfall observed throughout the state.
Typically, the IMD declares the end of the monsoon season between October 7 and 10. This year, however, marks the earliest withdrawal in the past four years, with 2024 and 2025 seeing the monsoon end on October 15 and October 11, respectively. In 2023, influenced by El Niño, the withdrawal occurred on October 6, mirroring the situation expected in 2026.
Data from the IMD indicates that from June 1 to September 30, Maharashtra recorded an average rainfall of 804.4 mm, which is lower than the seasonal average of 994.5 mm. This results in a 19 percent shortfall; however, officials assert that the rainfall this year still qualifies as normal.
Sushma Nair, a scientist at IMD Mumbai, explained, “According to the IMD’s criteria, we can only classify the rainfall season as deficient if the shortfall is 20 percent or more. Since this year’s shortfall is 19 percent, we cannot categorize Maharashtra’s rainfall as deficient, despite the actual figures being below the average.”
Additionally, the IMD’s data highlights uneven rainfall patterns across the state. While Nashik and Palghar recorded excess rainfall, adjacent districts like Ahilya Nagar and Sholapur faced shortages.
In Mumbai, rainfall distribution was similarly inconsistent throughout the monsoon months. The Santacruz observatory reported a 29 percent deficit in June, but in July, it recorded an excess of over 55 percent. August and September saw deficits of 35 percent and 49 percent, respectively.
The Colaba observatory also showed fluctuations, with an 18 percent shortfall in June, followed by a 50 percent surplus in July. The subsequent months of August and September recorded deficits of 188 percent and 101 percent, respectively.
Overall, the Santacruz observatory measured 2,530.5 mm of rainfall, which is a 9 percent surplus compared to its seasonal average of 2,318.8 mm. In contrast, Colaba recorded 1,957.1 mm of rainfall, reflecting a 7 percent deficit from its average of 2,102 mm.
Nair noted, “This year’s rainfall patterns have been uneven, leading to significant rainfall in July that compensated for earlier deficits. Consequently, the overall statistics indicate excess rainfall for Mumbai, despite shortages in three of the four monsoon months.”
IMD officials have indicated that Mumbai is likely to experience warmer conditions for the upcoming week. The weather bureau has issued a yellow alert for the city, warning of elevated heat levels over the weekend, with temperatures expected to remain around 35 degrees Celsius for the next several days.
