India’s experience with El Niño, coupled with the nation’s advancements in agricultural policies—such as crop insurance and the development of resilient seed varieties—indicates that food and cattle fodder inflation may be modest, along with a slight risk of economic downturn.
This evaluation emerged from a discussion titled “El Niño Meets a Warming Indian Ocean: Understanding the Impacts on Extreme Events and Society,” organized by the IIOE-2 Early Career Scientists Network (ECSN), a global consortium of emerging researchers focused on enhancing the understanding of the Indian Ocean.
Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist from IITM Pune, noted that India experienced a significant El Niño event in 2009, which resulted in a monsoon deficit of approximately 22%. Following that event, food inflation surged to about 20%. He highlighted that currently, over 56% of agricultural land is irrigated, and there are substantial reserves that help stabilize prices for staple crops like rice and wheat. However, he warned that other crops, such as oilseeds and pulses, are likely to suffer due to insufficient rainfall.
Dr. Smita Bal, a researcher at the Centre for Marine Living Resources and Ecology, pointed out the potential adverse effects on fish availability stemming from the rainfall shortage. Additionally, Dr. Himadri Saini, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Melbourne, emphasized that each El Niño event is unique in its characteristics and impacts.
The panelists also discussed the possible repercussions of El Niño on the winter monsoon. They noted that such phenomena typically lead to increased Western disturbances that facilitate winter rainfall in northern India. Dr. Vineet Singh, who served as moderator for the session, remarked that the Western Himalayas had recently experienced heavy rainfall, particularly in Uttarakhand and Nepal. He shared that satellite imagery from ten days prior showed minimal snow coverage in the region, but recent weather patterns have resulted in significant snowfall due to moisture influx from a depression and the Western disturbances. He expressed optimism for continued precipitation in northern India.
