Chief ministers typically do not dedicate four days to campaigning for just two Assembly by-elections in Tamil Nadu, but C Joseph Vijay has made an exception.
With the polls in Madurantakam and Dharapuram scheduled for October 6, the leader of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has committed two days to public rallies and another two to roadshows, which included an extensive 45-kilometer journey through over 30 villages in the Madurantakam area.
This vigorous campaign effort stands in stark contrast to his approach during the April Assembly elections, when his appearances were notably limited, with many rallies canceled and a significant portion of constituency campaigning delegated to other leaders and candidates.
The level of engagement from the Chief Minister has raised expectations within the TVK. A senior official expressed confidence, stating, “With this level of campaigning from Vijay himself, we should secure 50% of the votes.” This sentiment underscores why these by-elections are viewed as pivotal, extending beyond the mere contest for two seats.
The TVK currently holds power, and both constituencies became vacant after AIADMK legislators resigned shortly after their elections and joined Vijay’s party. The same individuals—Maragatham Kumaravel in Madurantakam and P Sathyabama in Dharapuram—are now running as candidates for the TVK.
A successful outcome for the TVK would indicate that not only have the politicians shifted allegiance, but their voter base has also followed suit. Conversely, a loss in even one of these constituencies could complicate the narrative the TVK has been promoting since taking office in May: that Tamil Nadu’s political landscape has definitively shifted in favor of Vijay. Senior leaders within the TVK acknowledge that a defeat could deter AIADMK members from transitioning to the ruling party.
Since the Assembly elections, the TVK has been attracting former ministers, legislators, and local figures from the diminishing AIADMK. In Dharapuram, local AIADMK leaders have already begun aligning with the TVK. A win would facilitate further transitions, while a loss might serve as a reminder that changing parties is easier than changing constituencies.
This by-election also serves as a crucial test of Vijay’s enduring appeal, especially in light of whether his coalition of voters from April still feels a personal connection to him after the excitement of the general elections has subsided. TVK leaders speculate that women voters could play a critical role, believing that male voters may be more aligned with established party loyalties, while Vijay has potential to expand his support among female constituents.
The validity of this assessment will be revealed when votes are cast, which partly explains Vijay’s decision to engage directly with voters rather than relying solely on ministers and local organizers. His roadshow in Madurantakam featured stops in villages, personal interactions, a tractor ride, and even tea at a roadside shop.
The Chief Minister who previously campaigned minimally while seeking office is now exerting considerable effort post-election.
The opposition is well aware of the implications of this situation. The AIADMK has leveraged the circumstances surrounding the by-election in its campaign, repeatedly labeling Sathyabama a “traitor” for resigning from the AIADMK to join the TVK after being elected as an AIADMK candidate. Their argument is straightforward: voters chose an AIADMK representative in April, so why should they be asked to elect the same individual for a different party just five months later?
Former Chief Minister and DMK leader M K Stalin has echoed similar sentiments, claiming that these elections reflect a “death of democracy” and criticizing the TVK for compelling voters to return to the polls so soon after the previous election. However, the DMK faces a unique challenge.
The DMK approaches these by-elections without the broad coalition that supported it during the Assembly elections. The Congress, VCK, MDMK, and IUML have shifted allegiance to Vijay’s political camp, while the CPI and CPI(M) are contesting separately. This means that the DMK may not necessarily need to win to frame a favorable narrative from the results.
If the DMK candidates manage to significantly increase their vote share compared to April while campaigning largely independently, party leaders could argue that the earlier defeat did not undermine their fundamental electoral strength. Although a win would be more impactful, even a stronger second-place finish could suggest that voters who previously abandoned the DMK are beginning to reconsider their choices.
For the AIADMK, the implications are more profound. These are seats that the party previously held. If former MLAs can resign, join the TVK, and then defeat AIADMK candidates in the same constituencies, it would illustrate a troubling reality: that the AIADMK brand may no longer be essential for some of its former representatives to succeed.
The campaign has also encountered the familiar complexities associated with Tamil Nadu by-elections. Udhayanidhi Stalin, the Opposition Leader in the Tamil Nadu Assembly, has accused the TVK of engaging in vote-buying practices in Dharapuram, claiming that cash was being delivered in tiffin boxes. Additionally, CPI(M) state secretary P Shanmugam reported that local villagers informed Left campaigners that multiple parties were distributing money, with the TVK allegedly being the most generous. The TVK has firmly denied these accusations, asserting its opposition to cash-for-votes politics.
The presence of the Left adds another layer of complexity. The CPI and CPI(M) have supported Vijay’s administration from outside but are now contesting against his candidates. Meanwhile, the PMK has opted for a neutral stance amidst discussions regarding a potential future alliance with the TVK. This scenario makes the October 6 elections a particularly significant examination of a government that is less than five months into its tenure.
While by-elections may not provide a comprehensive assessment of a state’s political landscape, factors such as local candidates, organizational strength, voter turnout, and the benefits of incumbency can distort efforts to extrapolate broader trends from two constituencies. Nonetheless, these two seats have gained substantial importance in the current political climate.
