Sri Lanka may encounter renewed challenges related to food inflation as global fertilizer prices experience a sharp increase due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, a senior economist from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned today, October 10.

During the presentation of the Asian Development Outlook – April 2026 in Colombo, Ms. Liliya Aleksanyan emphasized that prices for non-energy commodities, especially fertilizers, have surged significantly in recent weeks.

“The cost of urea has soared by more than 50%, while ammonia prices have risen by nearly 40% since late February,” she explained, underscoring the importance of these products for agricultural output.

The substantial increase in fertilizer prices is anticipated to raise production costs for Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector, which could lead to lower crop yields in the upcoming months if this trend continues.

“Consequently, this could drive up domestic food prices, contributing to inflationary pressures later in the year,” Aleksanyan warned.

This cautionary note comes as Sri Lanka continues its efforts to rebuild its economic resilience following recent crises, rendering it particularly susceptible to external disturbances.

In addition to fertilizer concerns, the economist highlighted broader global risks, including high energy prices, tightening financial conditions, and uncertainties in trade, all of which could further exacerbate inflationary trends.

She remarked that while energy prices are a pressing issue, the rising costs of agricultural inputs represent an additional and often delayed pathway through which global disturbances affect domestic inflation.

As Sri Lanka progresses on its recovery journey, persistent increases in fertilizer prices may present a significant hurdle to achieving stability in food prices and overall economic robustness.