European airports have issued a cautionary statement regarding potential jet fuel shortages that may impact the upcoming summer vacation season unless oil shipments resume through the Strait of Hormuz within the next three weeks.
The Airports Council International (ACI) Europe communicated this concern in a letter to Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the EU Transport Commissioner, indicating that the region is on the brink of shortages if the situation does not improve soon.
This alert raises alarms about the possibility of flight cancellations or disruptions to holiday plans, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict involving the US and Israel against Iran. Since early March, oil prices have surged dramatically following Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route for Gulf exports, as a form of retaliation.
Despite Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a ceasefire, Brent crude oil prices remained around $96 per barrel on Friday, raising questions about the sustainability of the truce. Prior to the onset of hostilities, oil prices were approximately $72 per barrel.
The letter warned, “Should the passage through the Strait of Hormuz not stabilize significantly within the next three weeks, a systemic jet fuel shortage in the EU is imminent.”
Since late February, jet fuel prices have escalated following military actions against Iran initiated by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As reported by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global jet fuel prices exceeded $1,650 per tonne at the end of last week, more than double the figure from the previous year.
Asia has experienced the most severe price increases, with a year-on-year rise of 163%. Meanwhile, Europe has seen a 138% increase as countries scramble to secure fuel supplies.
Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair, noted that the UK—no longer part of the EU—faces the highest risk of jet fuel shortages due to its dependency on Kuwait for fuel supplies.
The last shipment of European jet fuel to traverse the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict is expected to reach Copenhagen shortly, following a partial delivery to Rotterdam earlier this week, according to shipping data from Vortexa.
Additionally, the final tanker of Gulf jet fuel bound for the UK arrived in Kent on Tuesday, delivered by the Maetiga from Saudi Arabia.
Historically, Europe has obtained over 60% of its jet fuel from Gulf refineries, with more than 40% of this supply transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s control over this strategic maritime passage has led European buyers to compete with Asian markets for alternative fuel supplies, as Gulf deliveries have dwindled.
The global jet fuel market is particularly vulnerable to disruptions in the Gulf due to limited alternative export routes, as highlighted by Australian investment bank Macquarie. While some crude oil shipments can circumvent the Strait via pipelines, similar options do not exist for jet fuel.
If trade routes resume, the bank predicts that the normalization of refined oil product markets, including fuels, will take two to three months longer than crude oil markets.
In response to rising fuel costs, airlines worldwide have begun to reduce flight schedules and increase ticket prices.
Such fare increases will likely contribute to higher inflation; however, severe jet fuel shortages could result in more significant economic repercussions by forcing individuals and businesses to reconsider travel plans or delay exports.
ACI expressed growing apprehension within the airport sector regarding the availability of jet fuel, urging the EU to actively monitor and address the situation. The ongoing military activities are further exacerbating demand fluctuations.
The situation may become particularly critical as the peak summer travel season approaches, which is essential for the tourism industry that many economies depend on, ACI noted in their letter, first reported by the Financial Times.
Willie Walsh, the director general of IATA, stated that even if the Strait of Hormuz remains open, it will take several months to restore supply levels due to the disruption of refining operations in the Middle East.
Prior to this crisis, IATA had projected a growth rate of 4.9% in passenger traffic for 2026.
