The Trinamool Congress (TMC) is bracing for a challenging election season in Kolkata, traditionally a stronghold for the party, as the finalization of voter rolls approaches completion following the adjudication process.
According to data released by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on Tuesday, there has been a reduction of 606,563 voters in the Kolkata North and Kolkata South districts. The difference in votes between the TMC and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the last Assembly elections of 2021 was recorded at 607,612.
Kolkata South encompasses Bhabanipur, where TMC leader and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is seeking re-election, along with other areas such as Kasba, Behala Purba, Behala Paschim, Kolkata Port, Rashbehari, and Ballygunge.
In Kolkata North, there are also seven constituencies, namely Kashipur-Belgachhia, Maniktala, Shyampukur, Jorasanko, Beleghata, Entally, and Chowrangee.
Since the commencement of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), the number of voters in Kolkata South has decreased by 247,882, a decline of nearly 27%, while Kolkata North has seen 358,681 names removed, representing a drop of approximately 24%.
During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP surprised many by winning 18 seats in Bengal, a significant increase from just three in 2014. In that election, the TMC secured Kolkata South by a margin of 155,000 votes and Kolkata North by 127,000 votes.
In the subsequent 2024 general elections, while the BJP managed to maintain its vote share in Bengal, its total seats dropped from 18 to 12. The TMC’s winning margin in Kolkata South increased to 187,000 votes, although it fell to 92,560 in Kolkata North.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, the TMC won all 14 constituencies in Kolkata. The vote gap between the TMC and BJP in Kolkata South was 346,000 votes, while in Kolkata North, it stood at 262,000 votes. Among the 14 MLAs elected from Kolkata, seven were appointed as ministers in the returning government led by Mamata Banerjee.
A senior leader from the TMC acknowledged concerns regarding the changes in voter numbers in Kolkata following the SIR, stating that it remains uncertain which party would be more adversely affected. The leader highlighted that over 50,000 votes were deleted even in the Chief Minister’s constituency. In the 2021 by-election, Banerjee’s margin of victory in Bhabanipur was less than 50,000 votes, and the BJP had established a lead in several wards during the 2024 elections.
The BJP had gained leads in over 40 of the 144 wards during the Kolkata Municipal Corporation elections held shortly after the general elections. In Bhabanipur, the BJP led in more than five of the eight wards.
The TMC leader remarked, “While our battle in Kolkata is set to be difficult, our party workers are diligently engaging with households across the city. We anticipate that our win margin may be narrower, but we are confident of securing all seats in Kolkata.”
In response, a senior BJP leader expressed optimism about the upcoming results in Kolkata, citing both the voter deletions and the belief that TMC would be unable to engage in fraudulent polling or rigging this time around.
