A recent study indicates that by 2050, metabolic liver disease is expected to impact approximately 1.8 billion individuals worldwide, a trend largely attributed to escalating rates of obesity and elevated blood sugar levels.
Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), formerly referred to as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is emerging as one of the most widespread and rapidly increasing liver diseases globally, as per the research findings.
Current estimates reveal that around 1.3 billion people are living with MASLD, marking a staggering 143% increase over the past thirty years. This translates to about one in six individuals, or 16%, being affected by the condition.
The research, which is part of the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study (GBD), has been published in the journal Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology.
Projecting forward, the prevalence of this condition is anticipated to rise even further, driven by global population growth as well as lifestyle changes such as increased obesity and elevated blood sugar levels.
In 1990, the number of individuals affected by MASLD was approximately 500 million. By 2023, this figure has surged to 1.3 billion, with projections suggesting that the number could reach 1.8 billion by 2050, representing a 42% increase from 2023.
The global prevalence rate has escalated to 14,429 cases per 100,000 people in 2023, which reflects a 29% increase since 1990.
MASLD is more prevalent among men than women, with the highest rates observed in older adults aged 80 to 84. Nevertheless, the largest demographic of affected individuals falls within the younger age brackets, specifically men aged 35 to 39 and women aged 55 to 59.
High blood sugar levels were identified as the primary contributor to MASLD-related health issues globally, followed by a high body mass index (BMI) and smoking. This highlights a significant correlation with type 2 diabetes and obesity.
Certain regions, particularly North Africa and the Middle East, exhibit disproportionately high rates of MASLD compared to other areas. However, there has been a notable increase in cases across various countries worldwide.
In the United Kingdom, the prevalence rate rose by 33% from 1990 to 2023, the most significant increase in Western Europe, according to an analysis conducted by the Guardian.
Australia reported a 30% increase in prevalence, while the United States saw a 22% rise, as highlighted in the analysis.
Interestingly, the study found that despite the increasing number of individuals diagnosed with the disease, the overall health impact—measured in terms of years lost due to illness or death—remained stable. This suggests that advancements in treatment and care are enabling people to live longer and healthier lives, with most new cases occurring in the early stages of the disease.
However, the rising incidence of MASLD still poses a significant risk for many individuals, potentially leading to severe complications such as liver cirrhosis or cancer in the future.
Typically associated with excess weight, MASLD can often be managed through lifestyle modifications. The condition is generally asymptomatic, with many individuals unaware they have it until they undergo tests for unrelated health issues, as noted by the NHS in England. When symptoms do occur, they may include fatigue, a general feeling of unwellness, and discomfort or pain in the liver area, located in the abdomen beneath the right rib cage.
The study was spearheaded by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a public health research organization based at the University of Washington in Seattle. The authors emphasized that the findings underscore the increasing prevalence of MASLD among younger adults, alongside deteriorating health and lifestyle factors.
They stressed the need to recognize MASLD as a global health priority and advocated for the development of policies, awareness initiatives, and interventions aimed at reducing its growing impact and preventing future complications.
