On Sunday, a significant setback for authoritarian forces was witnessed in Hungary, where the combined influence of Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Donald Trump’s America faced a decisive defeat, allowing European liberal democratic values to prevail.
The populist-nativist right made extensive efforts to secure Viktor Orbán’s continued leadership. U.S. Vice President JD Vance, while engaged in the conflict in Iran, took a moment to showcase his support in Budapest, following the recent Conservative Political Action Conference held there. Notably, in January, Benjamin Netanyahu appeared in a video endorsing Orbán, alongside backing from Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and France’s Marine Le Pen. Herbert Kickl of Austria’s Freedom Party remarked on a “patriotic wind blowing across Europe,” but the results in Hungary suggest that this sentiment is not in their favor, as true patriotism does not align with their ideals.
Orbán’s loss to the conservative Péter Magyar and his Tisza party undermines the standing of the far-right across Europe. Despite years of political manipulation, including gerrymandering, constitutional amendments, corruption, and the undermining of media and judicial independence, the Hungarian electorate has managed to break free, sending a warning signal to the continent’s authoritarian movements.
Orbán’s Hungary has played a pivotal role in the global far-right landscape. As noted by climate investigative group DeSmog, he has utilized a network of state-funded think tanks, media platforms, and conferences to promote his version of “illiberal democracy” throughout Europe, including the United Kingdom.
The rise of the European hard right has been alarming, claiming about a quarter of the seats in the European Parliament in 2024, governing in Italy, and participating in ruling coalitions in countries such as Finland, Sweden, Austria, Slovakia, and, until recently, the Netherlands. This challenges the post-World War II perception of Europe as a bastion of liberal democracy. While Magyar may not be a social liberal, his leadership signals a return to the EU’s mainstream values.
This outcome in Hungary aligns with the shifting dynamics against Trump and his significant miscalculation: instigating conflict in Iran and triggering global inflation. Political cycles are gradual, but a U.S. president approaching midterm elections with soaring fuel prices will not be an appealing figure for far-right supporters, but rather someone to distance themselves from.
In 2018, Nigel Farage, a supporter of Orbán, proclaimed him as “the strongest leader in Europe and the EU’s biggest nightmare.” However, Farage may soon encounter the repercussions of diminishing support for far-right ideologies. His party, Reform UK, which initially gained traction, is now witnessing a decline, as highlighted by political analyst Peter Kellner. The failure to secure Gorton and Denton has dealt a significant blow to his leading candidate, Matt Goodwin. Furthermore, his awkward endorsement of Trump has become a liability, particularly as only 16% of UK voters express favorable views toward the former president.
Farage often overlooks the fact that Brexit was a mutual creation for both him and the movement. Statista reports that 58% of the populace now considers leaving the EU a mistake. He also tends to ignore his previous remarks, mirroring Putin’s rhetoric, that the West “provoked” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2014, Putin was the leader he admired most, albeit “as an operator, but not as a human being.”
Currently, with Reform UK leading in opinion polls at 25%, the party is poised for a significant victory in the upcoming local elections. However, this does not guarantee a favorable outlook for Farage as a potential prime minister in three years. Trends noted by Kellner indicate that Reform has surpassed Labour as the party voters would most likely oppose, a factor that will be crucial for tactical voting strategies.
It is unlikely that the average Reform voter was anxiously awaiting the election results from Hungary, yet political opinions can shift subtly, suggesting a broader change in sentiment. Professor Rob Ford from Manchester University reflects on this “turning tide,” noting that such fleeting perceptions can quickly dissipate. The real question remains whether Orbán’s defeat will create ripples among conservative allies. “Will commentators in the Telegraph and Spectator reconsider their stance on Reform as a viable solution?” Ford queries.
The British right has closely aligned itself with Orbán. Earlier this year, the Good Law Project revealed funding from the Hungarian state to the Mathias Corvinus Collegium think tank, which contributed over £500,000 to the UK’s Roger Scruton Legacy Foundation. This foundation’s directors include key figures from Reform UK and the Spectator, raising concerns about the erosion of the barriers that once separated traditional conservatism from the hard right.
Labour, too, should heed the implications of the Hungarian election results. Ford warns that they should not draw comfort from the outcome, as they face the potential for “the worst defeat in history,” with the greatest threat being their current “daze of complacency.”
Seventy years after the failed uprising in Hungary, the significant rejection of Fidesz may reignite enthusiasm for European unity and liberal democratic principles. This election serves as a pushback against hard-right populism, which should be relegated to the political fringes. Upcoming European elections will reveal whether this event in Hungary is an isolated occurrence or if it resonates throughout the continent. For now, good news is scarce, so it is essential to appreciate it while it lasts.
Polly Toynbee is a columnist for The Guardian.
