Last weekend proved to be challenging for Arsenal as they suffered a defeat on home turf against Bournemouth, showcasing a lackluster and fragmented performance. The situation worsened the next day when Manchester City secured a dominant victory over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. As a result, Arsenal’s lead at the top of the Premier League has diminished from nine points to six, with City holding a game in hand.

The two teams are set to clash at the Etihad Stadium this Sunday in what could be a pivotal moment in the title race. The narrative surrounding this match is straightforward: a victory for City would likely allow them to take the title, especially if they follow it up with a win in their game in hand, given their formidable form towards the season’s end. This scenario is being discussed in some circles as almost inevitable, suggesting Arsenal has already lost their grip on the title.

This belief is grounded in reality, as Arsenal has only managed to secure a single win in their last five matches, which has included exits from both domestic cup competitions. The nature of these losses, particularly against Manchester City in the League Cup final and Bournemouth in the league, raises valid questions about Mikel Arteta’s team’s ability to cope with pressure.

However, the title race remains very much alive, and there are still numerous reasons for Arsenal fans to hold onto hope.

• Arsenal has experienced three consecutive losses in domestic competitions against Manchester City in the League Cup final, Southampton in the FA Cup quarter-finals, and Bournemouth in the league. Their last four-game losing streak was in early 2018, which included defeats to City in both league and cup.
• Since the beginning of the year, Arsenal players have made 15 errors leading to shots in their 13 league matches, nearly double the eight errors recorded in their previous 19 games.
• In contrast, Manchester City approaches the match with significant momentum, remaining unbeaten in their last 14 home league fixtures since suffering a 2-0 defeat to Tottenham in their season opener. They have scored two or more goals in 12 of these 14 games.
• Looking at trends, City has not lost a home league game to Arsenal in their last 10 encounters (7 wins, 3 draws) since a 2-0 defeat in January 2015. Nonetheless, Arsenal’s recent record against City is encouraging, as they are unbeaten in their last five league matchups (2 wins, 3 draws) after previously losing 12 straight.

In their last ten matches against each other, the results have been as follows:

• 27 Jan 2023: City 1-0 Arsenal (FA Cup 4th round)
• 15 Feb 2023: Arsenal 1-3 City (Premier League)
• 26 Apr 2023: City 4-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
• 6 Aug 2023: Arsenal 1-1 City (Community Shield, Arsenal won 4-1 on penalties)
• 8 Oct 2023: Arsenal 1-0 City (Premier League)
• 31 Mar 2024: City 0-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
• 22 Sep 2024: City 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
• 2 Feb 2025: Arsenal 5-1 City (Premier League)
• 21 Sep 2025: Arsenal 1-1 City (Premier League)
• 22 Mar 2026: Arsenal 0-2 City (League Cup final)

The phrase “If Manchester City win all their remaining games, they win the league” has been echoed frequently in recent discussions. However, it is important to acknowledge the challenges even a team as talented as Pep Guardiola’s side might face. The expectation that City will effortlessly win all their matches disregards recent performances.

In the past two seasons, City’s longest winning streak in the league has been six matches, achieved last year between November and December. Outside of that stretch, they have only managed a maximum of four consecutive wins on two occasions.

This current City team, while still formidable, does not exhibit the same relentless dominance seen in previous seasons. They are certainly capable of exceptional performances, but they are not invincible. Assuming they will have a flawless finish to the season may be premature.

Arsenal should approach the upcoming game at the Etihad as a chance for victory rather than a daunting challenge. A win could virtually secure the title for them.

Recent league encounters between Arsenal and City have yielded positive results for the Gunners, as they remain unbeaten in their last five meetings in the Premier League (two wins and three draws), following a streak of 12 consecutive losses. Although their defeat in the League Cup final was concerning, it wasn’t a complete domination by City; Arsenal performed below their potential.

Furthermore, Arsenal’s track record in high-stakes matches under Arteta is commendable. Over the past three and a half seasons, they have recorded fewer losses than any of their competitors in matches against current top six teams (eight out of 39) while accumulating the highest points total. This suggests that Arsenal tends to falter in games where they are favored rather than in clashes against direct rivals.

A match against Bournemouth appeared favorable, highlighting the unpredictability of sports. As previously noted, Arsenal has a history of dropping points in situations where they are expected to succeed.

Nonetheless, the remaining schedule appears to favor Arsenal. Based on Opta Power Rankings assessing opponent strength, their upcoming matches feature an average opponent rating of 90.4, compared to City’s 92.0.

In relation to the league, Arsenal faces the fourth-easiest remaining schedule. Securing at least a draw at the Etihad could be crucial for maintaining control of the title race, especially with three of their final matches being held at home.

Concerns about Arsenal’s creativity in open play have been voiced, and these criticisms hold merit. In their match against Bournemouth, they recorded a mere 0.19 expected goals from open play, the lowest in a home league match since October 2025 against Crystal Palace.

However, their total expected goals against Bournemouth stood at 2.32, with 2.13 of that arising from set-pieces. While the penalty (0.79) may inflate that figure slightly, their ability to consistently generate high-quality chances from dead-ball situations remains a notable strength. There is a stark imbalance between their chance creation from open play and set-pieces, indicating room for improvement.