Europe may face significant flight disruptions in the coming weeks, as global energy officials caution that the continent has “perhaps six weeks of jet fuel remaining,” a situation that could lead to increased prices and potential cancellations for travelers from Australia.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated that fuel supplies could reach a critical status as early as June unless shipments from the Middle East are restored, as reported by the Associated Press (AP).
This warning adds to the anxiety experienced by many Australians planning trips to Europe, following a series of flight cancellations attributed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global fuel transportation, has been inaccessible for over six weeks due to Iran’s response to U.S. and Israeli military actions.
Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, informed AP that flight cancellations could occur if fuel supplies remain obstructed. “In Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left,” he stated. “If we are unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz … it is likely we will soon hear about some flights being cancelled due to a lack of jet fuel.”
The IEA, which advises 32 member nations on energy supply and security matters, notes that exports from the Gulf region constitute the primary source of jet fuel for the global market, with Europe depending on the Middle East for approximately 75 percent of its imports.
Justin Wastnage, an aviation expert and adjunct industry fellow at Griffith University’s Institute of Tourism, clarified that the “six weeks” estimate likely pertains to commercial stock levels rather than an absolute fuel shortage. “It indicates how much commercial stock is available and the speed at which this buffer could be depleted if major supply routes are compromised,” he explained.
He added that intra-European airfares are already under strain and are expected to escalate further. “There are multiple factors at play now … rising fuel costs for airlines, a decrease in supply, and increased demand as travelers aim to go before further disruptions might occur,” he noted. “Prices could rise by about 50 percent compared to the same period last year.”
In a statement, Airlines UK reported that there are currently no supply challenges affecting jet fuel. “UK airlines are not experiencing disruptions in jet fuel supply, partly due to the diverse nature of the UK’s fuel sources, and they continue to work with fuel suppliers and the government to monitor the situation,” the statement read.
Australian airlines are also adapting to the rising fuel expenses, with some carriers canceling routes and consolidating flights to ensure full aircraft. Virgin Australia plans to reduce its domestic flights by 1 percent in the three months leading up to June 30, while Qantas is dealing with up to $800 million in additional fuel costs, leading to the suspension of four regional routes and the indefinite cancellation of one.
Qantas, Virgin Australia, and Regional Express have been attending weekly federal briefings on fuel security, led by Transport Minister Catherine King. It has been reported that airlines have not submitted any formal requests for the Australian government to support jet fuel purchases.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese emphasized that the significant fire at the Geelong refinery would not alter Australia’s fuel security strategy, stating that the facility remains partially operational, with around 80 percent of diesel and 60 percent of petrol production continuing.
Wastnage expressed confidence that Australia’s jet fuel supplies should be satisfactory. “Unfortunately, as is often the case, wealthier nations will be less severely impacted, while poorer countries will face greater challenges,” he remarked. “This disparity will also affect regional areas more than metropolitan ones. Ultimately, those who can afford to travel will continue to do so, while those who cannot will be left behind.”
